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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1651.44EOD only
Max Pain
$1680.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$49.80
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+28.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
1.27
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 30, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 16, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short puts
Invalidation: Spot below $1400 (gamma flip)
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 63.6% vs VIX 16.4, IV elevated relative to VIX.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure slightly upward sloping near-term, mixed further out.

📈High IV and pinning gamma support premium selling; GEX positive $2.9M.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,627 (22.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $1150-$1700, call wall $1900-$2300, max pain $1550/$1660/$1680.

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: multiple pins but spot above MP, put support strong.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $1780.00/$1760.00 put spread
Sell $1780/$1760 put spread expiring Jul 17; collects premium with tail risk capped.
Credit: $8.05-$9.84
Max loss: $10.16
BE: $1770.16
Mgmt: Monitor for gamma flip at $1400; exit if spot breaks below $1700 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $1400; break invalidates bullish thesis.
!High put skew (vol ratio 1.33) reflects downside hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.