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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1655.26EOD only
Max Pain
$1790.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$106.00
6.4% from close
Price Gap
+134.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.29
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 27, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 12, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Put Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $1730 support or above $1967 guardrail
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 64.8% vs VIX 17.7: significant premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: 0 DTE put IV at 222% extreme; steep short-term, flattens post 20d

⚠️0 DTE put IV at 222% signals fear; short-term theta premium juicy but risky

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+8.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$1650.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,098 (11.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $2200-$2220; put floor $1150-$1700; max pain $1730 (6/12), $1500 (6/18), $1600 (6/26)

Verdict: High pin risk near $1730 for 6/12 expiry; spot above max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $1680.00/$1480.00 put spread
Captures elevated put premium with defined risk
Credit: $35.78-$43.73
Max loss: $156.27
BE: $1636.27
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $2180.00/$2460.00 call spread
Bearish bet on post-earnings IV decline
Credit: $27.72-$33.88
Max loss: $246.12
BE: $2213.88
Mgmt: Set wide stops due to low liquidity Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (50%).

Risk Alerts

!Spot 7.7% above max pain ($1730) – deviation increases pin risk
!Elevated put IV on short expirations – quick decay but high gamma risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.