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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1711.32EOD only
Max Pain
$1640.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$61.60
3.6% from close
Price Gap
-71.32
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.15
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 21, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron Condor
Invalidation: ASML breaks below $1700 or above $1785
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 64% vs VIX 19% – elevated implied vol
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Inverted near-term (3D 61%), contango 9D–17D, then backwardation at 24D; event risk priced in

📊Extreme put skew: 3D put IV 107% vs call 75%
📌Max pain pinned $1785 (Jun26) and $1740 (Jul2)

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-1.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,895 (4.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy at $1700 (2,895); call wall $1900-$2100; put floor $1150-$1600

Verdict: High pin risk at $1785 (max pain) and $1740-$1745; dealer gamma negative supports pinning

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $1760.00 put
Sell front-month put and buy back-month put at same strike to profit from time decay and volatility contraction, with limited downside risk.
Debit: $45.77-$55.94
Max loss: $55.94
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if ASML breaks below $1700 or if liquidity worsens; monitor implied vol spread. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Spot near gamma flip $1700 – break could accelerate
!Negative dealer gamma (-$1.2M) amplifies directional moves
!Put skew extreme – downside hedging demand
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.