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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1679.92EOD only
Max Pain
$1680.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$70.25
4.2% from close
Price Gap
+0.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
67
High premium
P/C OI
1.17
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 18, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell call spreads $2100-$2200; avoid standalone puts near $1700 pin risk
Invalidation: Spot < $1700 or > $2100; earnings without exit
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 62.8% vs VIX 17.3 (3.6x) – extreme premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week IV 58%, dips to 54% then spikes to 59% by 7/17 – elevated demand

📈High put IV vs calls – fear premium
✅GEX +$3.1M – dealer gamma supports
🎯Max pain $1750, $1700 – pinning likely

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+3.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,881 (11.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $2100-$2200; Put floor $1100-$1700; Put-heavy near-term OI

Verdict: Elevated pin risk – spot may pin to $1750 or $1700 due to max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $1900.00/$1880.00 put spread
Sell 1900/1880 put spread expiring 2026-07-24, capturing elevated premium while limiting downside.
Credit: $8.55-$10.45
Max loss: $9.55
BE: $1889.55
Mgmt: Exit before earnings (2026-07-15) or if spot falls below $1750; monitor IV collapse post-event. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!High put IV suggests tail risk pricing
!Earnings unknown – exit before earnings or avoid selling options
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.