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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1629.67EOD only
Max Pain
$1620.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$29.40
1.8% from close
Price Gap
-9.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.17
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short premium (OTM)
Invalidation: Break below 1848 support or VIX >20
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 68.7% far above VIX 16.4 – rich premiums
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: General contango with IV spike at 155 DTE (79.4%) – likely event risk

📈IV 68.7% vs VIX 16.4 – rich premiums
⚠️IV spike at 155 DTE (79.4%) – avoid that expiration
📌Dealer gamma +$10.8M, pinning toward max pain $1600

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+10.8M)

Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (27.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Calls $2200-$2300 wall; puts $1150-$1700 floor

Verdict: Spot above max pain $1600; dealer gamma positive but OI put floor supports downside – risk of pinning to lower levels

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $1760.00/$1740.00 put spread
Sell put spread expecting spot to stay above 1760 near support.
Credit: $4.46-$5.45
Max loss: $14.55
BE: $1754.55
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks 1848 support.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $1840.00/$1820.00 put wing and $2020.00/$2040.00 call wing
Sell wings capturing volatility contraction, but low liquidity.
Credit: $11.93-$14.58
Max loss: $5.42
BE: 1825.42 / 2034.58
Mgmt: Manage wings if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 20.6% above max pain – high erosion risk
!Gamma flip at 1400 if spot drops
!Elevated put/call OI ratio 1.36 – bearish sentiment
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.