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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $266.17EOD only
Max Pain
$270.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.67
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+3.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.68
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning into 2026-04-30 AAPL earnings; flow and GEX favor consolidation around $268–$275 rather than a large gap move.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Concentrated call OI and bullish flow create pinning pressure that limits large directional moves (event IV already muted).
📌Pinning likely around $268–$275 driven by concentrated call OI and large call prints.
⚠️Expect moderate IV crush (~6–10 vol points on weeklies); same-day IV already low so additional drop may be small—watch for hidden tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$4.32 (1.6%)
  • 2026-04-27 (5d): ±$5.81 (2.1%)
  • 2026-04-29 (7d): ±$7.38 (2.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: IV by expiry: 4/22 ~21% (near-term weekly), 4/27 ~14% (later weekly), same-day 4/30 ~6–8% (earnings day prints are low).

Crush estimate: Moderate absolute crush expected: ~6–10 vol point drop for weeklies that are pricing event risk; minimal additional drop on same-day IV (already low).

Skew: Call-heavy OI and prints cluster above 270; skew shows call concentration vs lighter put OI, supporting localized pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) with realized moves smaller than worst-case implied by weeklies.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish/pinning given repeated call accumulation and above-spot flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $268.85/$277.49; 1w $267.36/$278.99
2Max pain pins: $268 (2026-04-22); $262 (2026-04-24); $268 (2026-04-27)

Flow Highlights

Large call prints and OI at 270–275 expiring 4/22–4/27

Supports pinning near $268–$275 and creates upside resistance around $280–$286.

Unusual put volume clustered 267.5–272.5 intraday

Protective short-dated flow exists but aggregate put OI is smaller than call OI, limiting downside pressure.

Strategies

May iron condor (255/252.5 put,275/280 call)
Sell 2026-05-01 $255.00/$252.50 put wing and $275.00/$280.00 call wing
Credit: $1.98-$2.41
Max loss: $2.59
Max gain: $2.41
BE: 252.59 / 277.41
Trigger: Trim or roll if price breaches wing edges or daily IV spikes; close into rising broad-market volatility.
Best risk-reward given strong pinning 268–275 and muted event IV; defined loss limits gap risk.
Outperforms: Collect week-after-earnings premium with balanced wings to profit from consolidation around pin range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put diagonal (sell May1 255 / buy May15 250)
Sell 2026-05-01 $255.00 put / buy 2026-05-15 $250.00 put
Debit: $0.49-$0.60
Max loss: $0.60
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Let decay work; buy back if stock moves below 255 or if OI/prints show de-pinning.
Cheap front-week premium with back-month protection suits slight bullish/pinning bias.
Outperforms: Capture pinning-related put premium while limiting tail risk via longer-dated hedge.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call diagonal (sell May1 275 / buy May15 285)
Sell 2026-05-01 $275.00 call / buy 2026-05-15 $285.00 call
Credit: $1.73-$2.12
Max loss: $0.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short leg on gap above 275 or if short-dated IV collapses; adjust long for roll-out if needed.
Allows premium collection against capped upside while retaining participation if a modest rally follows.
Outperforms: Sell elevated near-term IV, keep upside by long further expiry call.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $255.00 put + sell $275.00 call
Credit: $5.70-$6.97
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $6.97
BE: 248.03 / 281.97
Event IV muted and pinning reduces directional movement; weeklies still show elevated IV vs same-day, offering premium.
Outperforms: Collect near-term premium by selling calls and puts into pin area; small credit, high probability.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Event IV dispersion may mask tail risk despite low same-day IV
!Gap risk at release remains if surprise breaks pinning levels
!Broad market moves (SPY/QQQ) could overwhelm localized pinning

What to Watch

?Prints and OI changes at $267.5–$275 for shifts in pinning
?Daily IV trajectory for 4/22→4/27→4/30 (watch compressions or spikes)
?Unusual block prints into the 4/24–4/27 weeklies
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.