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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $273.05EOD only
Max Pain
$265.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.04
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-8.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning setup into AAPL earnings with strong call flow and concentrated OI near $270 supporting pin risk.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Call-heavy flow and GEX alignment near $270; 100% recent beat rate raises directional tail risk.
📌Pin risk: concentrated call flow and GEX align to $270 pin
📈Beat history 4/4 supports upside tail but flow favors pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (9 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (1d): ±$3.66 (1.4%)
  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$5.97 (2.2%)
  • 2026-04-27 (6d): ±$6.94 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-dated IV elevated ~22–30% with bumps at weekly expiries and higher IV on some puts.

Crush estimate: Moderate IV crush expected (~6–10% absolute IV drop) after print.

Skew: Put skew into $260–270 shows higher IV on downside, call activity clustered at $265–270.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves comparable to expected; market pricing implies ~1.4% 1d move.

Directional bias: Neutral-to-bullish given recent beats (4/4) but pinned by short-dated call flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $262.51/$269.84; 1w $259.23/$273.11
2Max pain pins: $270 (2026-04-22); $260 (2026-04-24); $268 (2026-04-27)

Flow Highlights

Large unusual call prints at $270 and $267.5 for 4/22

Dealer selling gamma likely to pin near $270

Substantial put OI at $265–270 and structural call OI wall $280–310

Support band near $262–270 with resistance into $280

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $252.50/$242.50 put wing and $270.00/$285.00 call wing
Credit: $4.52-$5.53
Max loss: $9.47
Max gain: $5.53
BE: 246.97 / 275.53
Trigger: Close or roll wings if spot breaches wings pre-print; trim on IV crush after print.
Caps upside squeeze from $270 pin while collecting rich front-week IV.
Outperforms: Sell 5/1 252.5/242.5 put wing and 270/285 call wing to monetize concentrated call OI and elevated weekly IV with limited loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
270 call calendar
Sell 2026-05-01 $270.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $270.00 call
Debit: $5.00-$6.11
Max loss: $6.11
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short if sharp rally through 270; roll long or convert to diagonal post-print.
Sells elevated front-dated call premium at the pin strike while keeping longer-dated convexity.
Outperforms: Sell 5/1 270 call, buy 6/18 270 call to harvest front-week IV and tolerate moderate move.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Put diagonal (cheap protection)
Sell 2026-05-01 $252.50 put / buy 2026-05-15 $250.00 put
Debit: $0.78-$0.96
Max loss: $0.96
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Let decay work if stable; close or roll wider if downside momentum builds.
Low-cost way to monetize roll premium while reflecting asymmetric put demand and higher put IV.
Outperforms: Sell 5/1 252.5 put, buy 5/15 250 put to reduce front-leg vega and limit loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $252.50 put + sell $270.00 call
Credit: $6.24-$7.63
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.63
BE: 244.87 / 277.63
Front-week IV rich (22–30%); concentrated call OI at $270 suggests limited range but asymmetric tail risk — collect premium and manage if pin breaks.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated strangle into elevated front IV and pinning at $270 to collect premium; expirations coincide with the earnings event.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pinning risk into $270 increases squeeze if upside surprise
!Higher downside IV on puts implies asymmetric protective demand
!Market weakness (SPY -0.65) can amplify downside moves

What to Watch

?Mid-week prints and net premium flow into 4/22 expiries
?Spot vs max pain levels $270/$268 intraday
?IV moves on $265–$270 strikes pre- and post-print
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.