thetaOwl
HomeOptionsAAPLReports

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.97EOD only
Max Pain
$295.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.02
1.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AAPL shows bullish flow and gamma pinning near $295-$300. High beat rate supports sentiment. Near-term expected moves moderate.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual $300 call buying with low put/call ratios indicates bullish conviction for the week.
📈Call volume at $300 & $302.5 indicative of bullish sentiment.
⚠️Put OI concentration at $240 acts as gamma floor.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,169 (19.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (72 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-20 (1d): ±$3.03 (1.0%)
  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$5.51 (1.8%)
  • 2026-05-26 (7d): ±$6.78 (2.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 1d ±1.0%, 3d ±1.8%, 7d ±2.3%

Crush estimate: Earnings 72 days away; no crush now.

Skew: Call activity dominates; max pain $295 pins short-dated.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate over 5 quarters)

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $295.95/$302.00; 1w $292.20/$305.75
3Max pain pins: $295 (2026-05-20); $292 (2026-05-22); $285 (2026-05-26)

Flow Highlights

Net premium +$141M, put/call volume ratio 0.41

Strong call bias dominates flow.

Unusual $300 call volume 95K vs OI 7.7K

Aggressive bullish positioning for weekly expiry.

Strategies

Iron Condor around $295-$305
Sell 2026-05-29 $295.00/$290.00 put wing and $305.00/$310.00 call wing
Credit: $2.15-$2.63
Max loss: $2.37
Max gain: $2.63
BE: 292.37 / 307.63
Trigger: Exit if price breaks $295 or $305; adjust wings on volatility spike.
Only eligible play; benefits from gamma pinning and contango with moderate expected moves.
Outperforms: Sells puts and calls to capture premium in low-volatility range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Market weakness (SPY -0.67%) may cap upside
!Put accumulation at $297.5 could indicate hedging or bearish bets
!Gamma flip at $240 offers structural support but far from spot

What to Watch

?Max pain $295 pin action this week
?Call wall at $320 resistance
?Support at $295 and $287 level
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.