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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.01EOD only
Max Pain
$295.00
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.78
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-3.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AAPL 38d pre-earnings, high confidence (9.0) with 100% beat rate and bullish pinning near $298 MP. IV front-end elevated, flattening out. Key risks: macro drag, call wall $320+.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: 100% beat rate, gamma pinning at $298, unusual $302.5 put activity signal tight range.
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters, but high expectations priced in.
⚠️Gamma pinning at $298 with $302.5 put wall suggests controlled range.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,643 (19.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (38 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-24 (2d): ±$4.65 (1.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$6.72 (2.3%)
  • 2026-06-29 (7d): ±$7.85 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d ±1.6%), flattening to 7d ±2.6%.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-event crush expected.

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated near $300 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Actual moves in line with implied; avg 1.5% vs 1.6%.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias historically, but mixed.

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $292.37/$301.66; 1w $289.16/$304.86
3Max pain pins: $298 (2026-06-22); $295 (2026-06-24); $298 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $302.5 Put vol/OI 95 and massive $297.5 Put volume (125k) suggest hedging near key levels.

Market makers delta-hedging, reinforcing pinning near $298 MP.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $300.00/$275.00 put wing and $310.00/$320.00 call wing
Credit: $4.54-$5.55
Max loss: $19.45
Max gain: $5.55
BE: 294.45 / 315.55
Trigger: Monitor gamma flip at $240; adjust if price nears wings.
100% beat rate, gamma pinning at $298, IV front-end elevated; benefits from IV crush.
Outperforms: Defined-risk range play capturing tight price action.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Macro headwinds from SPY/QQQ decline.
!Gamma flip at $240 could spike volatility if breached.
!High put OI below $300 acts as support but signals bearish sentiment.

What to Watch

?Earnings date confirmation and guidance.
?Max pain pinning behavior around $298.
?Unusual put flow tail risk at $302.5.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.