thetaOwl

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $293.08EOD only
Max Pain
$297.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.51
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+4.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Inter-earnings session 35d before Jul 30 event. 100% beat rate, but no immediate catalyst. Spot below max pain, GEX pinning at $295.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Heavy 0DTE call buying at $280-285 suggests short-term bullish bias, but earnings IV not yet priced.
📈0DTE call volume 100k+ at $280/$285, vol/OI >100x, aggressive bullish positioning
⚠️Put OI concentration at $240 (13% below spot) could act as magnet on weakness

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$240.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,441 (12.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$4.84 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-29 (4d): ±$7.09 (2.6%)
  • 2026-07-01 (6d): ±$9.08 (3.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV ~30%, back-month elevated; 35d IV ~25%

Crush estimate: N/A - no immediate earnings crush

Skew: Skew steep puts downside; put OI concentrated at $240

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 100% (5/5); avg move ~0.8% vs exp 1.2%

Directional bias: Neutral-to-bullish post-earnings drift

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $270.31/$279.99; 1w $266.07/$284.22
3Max pain pins: $295 (2026-06-26); $298 (2026-06-29); $295 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

Massive 0DTE call buying: 105k+ at $280, 85k at $285, 29k at $287.5

Aggressive short-term bullish flow pinning spot near max pain.

Strategies

Long Strangle: Cheap Earnings Vol
Buy 2026-07-31 $265.00 put + buy $295.00 call
Debit: $8.89-$10.86
Max loss: $10.86
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 254.14 / 305.86
Trigger: Set 25% stop loss; take profit at 50% gain or IV peak before earnings.
Best risk/reward: captures expected 8% move at 60% cost of straddle with IV likely to expand into earnings.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call to profit from volatility expansion and directional move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long Straddle: Direct Vol Play
Buy 2026-07-31 $280.00 put + buy $280.00 call
Debit: $18.92-$23.13
Max loss: $23.13
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 256.87 / 303.13
Trigger: Risk 50% of premium; exit on IV crush or 2x gain.
Direct bet on earnings move; current IV undervalues historical 8% move despite 100% beat rate.
Outperforms: Buy ATM put and call to capture volatility from earnings surprise.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $250.00 put + sell $300.00 call
Credit: $2.74-$3.34
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.34
BE: 246.66 / 303.34
Near-term IV ~30% elevated; spot ~$278 with resistance $300 and support $250; high probability OTM strikes offer attractive theta decay.
Outperforms: Sell OTM call and put on AAPL 35 days before earnings, capturing elevated IV; will close before event to avoid gap risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $240 (put OI wall) could accelerate downside if broken
!Call OI wall at $295-$350 caps upside unless momentum pushes through

What to Watch

?Gamma flip level $240; spot currently ~$278
?0DTE call open interest for June 26 expiration
?Earnings expectations building; IV may expand into late July
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.