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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.97EOD only
Max Pain
$295.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.02
1.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow with pinning gamma; high confidence (7.5/10) despite 76 days to earnings.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Net premium +$319M, put/call volume 0.48, call OI wall at $320. Spot $303.93 near EM guardrails.
🟢Net premium +$319M, bullish flow despite market dip
⚠️Spot 7.2% above MP – pinning dynamics may cap upside
📊Historical beat rate 100% but 76 days to earnings – not immediate

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,216 (20.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-18 (3d): ±$3.70 (1.2%)
  • 2026-05-20 (5d): ±$6.22 (2.1%)
  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$7.68 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV low (expected moves ~1.2-2.6%)

Crush estimate: N/A – no immediate earnings event

Skew: Put skew elevated at $240 floor; call open interest heavy at $320

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate (5/5 quarters) but next earnings 76 days away

Directional bias: Bullish on flow but spot above MP (pinning) – watch for mean reversion

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $296.53/$303.93; 1w $294.02/$306.45
3Max pain pins: $280 (2026-05-15); $295 (2026-05-18); $285 (2026-05-20)

Flow Highlights

Large put buying at $180 (7500 vol, 124% IV) – low probability hedge

Unusual deep OTM put activity suggests tail risk hedging, not directional bet

Heavy call volume at $305 and $310 on 5/18 expiration

Bullish momentum positioning with pinning near $305

Strategies

Iron Condor on AAPL
Sell 2026-05-29 $295.00/$290.00 put wing and $310.00/$315.00 call wing
Credit: $1.81-$2.22
Max loss: $2.78
Max gain: $2.22
BE: 292.78 / 312.22
Trigger: Adjust if spot breaks $310 or $295; exit at 50% max gain or 21 DTE.
Only candidate; pinning near EM guardrails and low IV favor premium decay.
Outperforms: Sells put wing $295/$290 and call wing $310/$315 to capture time decay in range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot is 7.2% above max pain ($280) – risk of pinning or pullback
!VIX at 18 (normal) but gamma pinning could limit downward moves
!Call OI wall at $320 may act as resistance

What to Watch

?5/18 max pain $295 vs spot $303.93
?EM guardrails $296.53/$303.93 – break below/above signals direction
?Put floor $240 (structural)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.