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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $308.82EOD only
Max Pain
$300.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.54
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-8.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-confidence bullish pinning into earnings with elevated call flow and structural resistance above spot.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Gamma/flow aligned to pin the 260–266 area ahead of 4/30 earnings.
📌Pinning pressure concentrated at $260–$266 from heavy weekly call OI and net premium.
⚠️Spot ~4.9% above MP — gap and liquidity risk; sized flow can widen spreads and spike IV on a miss.
👍Historical 100% beat rate (4/4) tilts bias mildly bullish but not decisive.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (13 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (3d): ±$3.44 (1.3%)
  • 2026-04-22 (5d): ±$5.60 (2.1%)
  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$6.90 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-dated (front-week) IV modestly elevated vs farther-dated; front-week IV ~15–22% with higher skew into the week expiries.

Crush estimate: Moderate IV crush expected post-event (~20–40% of front-week IV); larger on a miss (~+40–80% front IV move intraday).

Skew: Call skew concentrated above spot; heavy call OI 275–295 and puts clustered ~265–267.5 into weeklies.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past moves have been smaller than priced median; beat rate 100% (4/4) historically.

Directional bias: Mild bullish bias given history and flow, but limited by gap-down risk.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $266.79/$273.68; 1w $264.63/$275.84
2Max pain pins: $258 (2026-04-17); $260 (2026-04-20); $260 (2026-04-22)

Flow Highlights

Large front-week call prints (272.5/275/280) and concentrated puts ~267.5.

Dealer delta likely short calls, supporting pinning near 260–266 and creating upside resistance bands.

Net premium positive with low put/call ratio into weeklies.

Skew and buy-side call demand increase upside pinning pressure pre-earnings.

Strategies

Bullish call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $275.00 call / buy 2026-05-15 $285.00 call
Credit: $1.62-$1.97
Max loss: $0.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Trim or roll if spot moves above 285 or IV spikes >50% front-week; close into big gap moves.
Keeps upside optionality while cutting short-gamma into pinning flow.
Outperforms: Sell near-term 275 call, buy later 285 to express mild bullish bias and limit assignment/IV pain.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Post-earnings iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $255.00/$250.00 put wing and $280.00/$285.00 call wing
Credit: $2.07-$2.53
Max loss: $2.47
Max gain: $2.53
BE: 252.47 / 282.53
Trigger: Widen/close wings if price targets or skew shift; cut if spot nears wings.
Banks premium outside the 260–266 pin band while using later expiry to reduce crush risk.
Outperforms: Sell 255/250 put and 280/285 call wings to collect premium with balanced risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle (conservative size)
Sell 2026-05-01 $255.00 put + sell $280.00 call
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.50
BE: 249.50 / 285.50
Trigger: Use tight size, buy protection if spot gaps or IV spikes >40%.
Highest premium but unlimited upside risk; best if you can size small.
Outperforms: Sell 255 put and 280 call into elevated front IV post-event expiry.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot ~4.9% above MP increases gap-down vulnerability at open.
!Liquidity/size risk: thin front-week markets can move 2–6% on sized flow; large prints may push slippage and widen spreads.
!IV spike on a miss: front-week IV could jump 40–80% intraday; on a big miss, further term-structure reprice possible.
!Front-week option concentration can amplify intraday moves and fast gamma shifts.

What to Watch

?Unusual prints in front-week expiries (267.5 puts, 272.5/275 calls).
?Price action vs $260–$266 guardrail pre-earnings and volume at those strikes.
?Real-time IV moves in front-week expiries around the announcement (watch +40–80% jump scenarios).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.