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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $294.80EOD only
Max Pain
$287.50
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.25
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-7.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AAPL far from earnings (78d); bullish flow & 100% beat rate support upside, but high IV may overprice moves.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual call sweep at $297.5 suggests near-term bullish momentum, but no catalyst until July earnings.
📈Bullish put/call volume ratio 0.31 indicates call dominance.
⚠️Long-dated $520 calls OI growing; speculative far-OTM bets.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,232 (19.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (78 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$5.27 (1.8%)
  • 2026-05-18 (5d): ±$6.54 (2.2%)
  • 2026-05-20 (7d): ±$7.65 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated near-term, elevated for far-dated options due to growth optionality.

Crush estimate: N/A - no proximate earnings event

Skew: Put skew elevated on downside, call open interest heavy at $320+

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically beats 100% (5/5); average move inline with implied.

Directional bias: Bullish bias from flow data, but long-dated sentiment unclear.

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $293.60/$304.14; 1w $292.33/$305.41
3Max pain pins: $290 (2026-05-13); $280 (2026-05-15); $290 (2026-05-18)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying at $297.5 5/13 expiration (163k vol vs 11k OI).

Aggressive bullish bet with high leverage, likely predicting near-term upward drift.

Put buying at $295 5/13 (48k vol vs 2.8k OI, $0.01 premium).

Low-cost hedging or lottery play, not directional conviction.

Strategies

Short Strangle on AAPL
Sell 2026-05-29 $275.00 put + sell $315.00 call
Credit: $1.75-$2.15
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.15
BE: 272.85 / 317.15
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or before June events to avoid gamma risk.
Only eligible candidate; exploits backwardated term structure and bullish bias with theta decay.
Outperforms: Sell 275 put and 315 call for income; benefits from low near-term volatility.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Decay of near-term IV if no catalyst emerges
!Gamma flip at $240 poses tail risk
!Macro headwinds from VIX 18 could amplify moves

What to Watch

?Spot holding above $295 support
?Call OI accumulation at $300-$320 for resistance
?Unusual option activity in weekly expirations
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.