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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $270.23EOD only
Max Pain
$260.00
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.44
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-10.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.68
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish-but-watchful: flow and GEX favor pinning near $265–$275 into earnings; IV elevated for front-week with meaningful call walls above.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: flow + GEX alignment and historical beat consistency (small sample)
Most important: Strong bullish flow/GEX alignment vs. concentrated call OI at higher strikes — pinning risk into event
📌Flow+GEX aligned for pinning near $265–$275 (monitor volume)
⚠️Front-week IV elevated (~21–23%); expect sizable weekly crush
📈Recent wins (4/4) lean upside but sample is small — treat cautiously

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (10 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (2d): ±$4.04 (1.5%)
  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$6.13 (2.2%)
  • 2026-04-27 (7d): ±$7.04 (2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV elevated (~21–23%) vs near-term intraday IV ~6–7%; term curve steep into post-earnings.

Crush estimate: Estimated IV crush: material for weekly expiries (~40–60% drop from front-week levels), muted for intraday expiries already low.

Skew: Call skew concentrated into $280–$295 area; put skew lighter with large short-dated put prints.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Expected move ~2–2.6% (±$4–7).

Directional bias: Modest upside tilt: recent 4/4 beats noted but sample is small — treat as suggestive, not definitive.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $269.00/$277.09; 1w $266.01/$280.09
2Max pain pins: $265 (2026-04-20); $265 (2026-04-22); $260 (2026-04-24)

Flow Highlights

Large net premium inflow and heavy call prints at $272.5–$280 expiries

Dealer delta shorting may pin price into $265–$275 range

High-volume short-dated put prints on 4/22 and intraday activity

Likely targeted hedges or spread setups versus front-week directional flow

Strategies

Call diagonal (sell short/ buy back-month)
Sell 2026-05-01 $282.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call
Debit: $5.34-$6.53
Max loss: $6.53
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or close if spot >275 pre-earnings or if front-week IV fails to compress; trim on big gaps.
Leverages steep term structure to collect front-week premium while capping risk vs naked calls.
Outperforms: Sell OTM front-week call, buy back-month to benefit if IV front-week collapses and to limit assignment/exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Defined iron condor
Sell 2026-05-08 $260.00/$250.00 put wing and $295.00/$300.00 call wing
Credit: $1.81-$2.21
Max loss: $7.79
Max gain: $2.21
BE: 257.79 / 297.21
Trigger: Trim/adjust wings if price trades toward a wing; close into IV peak pre-earnings.
Fits pinning/range-bound view and limits losses vs naked selling.
Outperforms: Use May-08 wings around expected pin range to collect premium with capped risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle (unbalanced)
Sell 2026-05-01 $252.50 put + sell $280.00 call
Credit: $4.48-$5.48
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.48
BE: 247.02 / 285.48
Trigger: Have hedges ready; buy calls or roll if spot rallies through call strikes.
Highest premium but unlimited upside risk and exposure to call walls.
Outperforms: Sell front-week put and call to harvest rich IV; asymmetric strikes to reflect call concentration.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pinning to max-pain around $265–$275
!Significant IV crush for weekly expiries post-event
!If current spot sits ~3% above your entry/mid Price, a post-earnings gap-down would magnify mark-to-market losses—manage sizing/stop levels accordingly

What to Watch

?Price and volume response around $265–$275 into close
?IV moves: 2d vs 1w maturities and call skew evolution
?Follow-through on large $275–$295 call OI walls (rolls or unwinds)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.