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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $308.82EOD only

Max Pain

$300.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.54

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-8.82

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

AAPL Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

AAPL is in a pinning, mixed-flow regime with Normal volatility. Dealers are long gamma (GEX +$328.1M) and there are concentrated pin magnets clustered around $260–$265 and a max-pain band near $250–$252.5, so short premium/credit strategies that capture pinning (iron condor / short strangle sized to EM) are favored. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap outside the 1-week EM ($254.43–$266.54) or heavy headline that overcomes dealer pinning.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP

Most important: Watch IV and flow into the Apr 30 event window and whether price gravitates to the $260–$265 GEX concentration (pin) or breaks toward the $250 max pain cluster.

📌Dealer GEX +$328.1M concentrated at $260–$265 suggests high probability of pinning into near-term expirations

⚠️Max pain cluster around $250–$252.5 across expirations — if price breaks, downside can accelerate to that band

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Mixed

Spot vs MP

Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (TBD) (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

2026-04-10 (1d): 257.63 - $263.34 (±$2.85, 1.1%)
2026-04-15 (6d): $254.43 - $266.54 (±$6.05, 2.3%)
2026-04-24 (15d): $250.34 - $270.64 (±$10.15, 3.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is 26.5% (2026-04-10) with a drop to 20.7% at 4d (2026-04-13) then mid-20s in the 1-2 week window (23.2%–24.4%). No sharp long-dated earnings-type IV spike around the Apr-30 date in the provided term structure.

Crush estimate: Estimated post-event IV move minimal — order of a few vol points (roughly 3–6 vol pts back toward the mid-20s), not a large >10pt crush based on current term structure.

Skew: Skew modest; puts not materially richer than calls overall (P/C OI 0.71, P/C vol 0.86) though near-term unusual put flow exists at strikes $257.50–$262.50.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters showed EPS above estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Recent EPS beats are small/cautious; historical surprise magnitudes are modest (acts modestly beat est.), not indicating frequent large >EM gaps

Directional bias: Mild upside bias on results given repeated small beats, but not a strong gap pattern

Key Levels

1$260.00 (GEX concentration / pin magnet)

2$265.00 (GEX concentration / pin magnet)

3$252.50 (max pain prox / near-term pin)

4$250.00 (max pain cluster)

5EM: $257.63 - $263.34 (next 2 days)

6$280.00 (structural call OI wall)

Flow Highlights

Very large call premium concentrated at $255.00 / $257.50 / $260.00 (Net call premium at $255: $32,470,450 call vs $5,909,394 put)

Buy-side leaning toward modest upside in the near term; dealers likely hedging with call-sell/put-buy flows feeding pinning around $255–$265

Unusual activity in near-term puts: heavy vol at 2026-04-10 $257.50P (Vol=36,404 OI=3,647) and 2026-04-10 $262.50P (Vol=6,821 OI=540)

Significant protective or speculative put demand near spot for very short expiries — could increase downside gamma if exercised; watch whether this is directional protection or hedging.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (EM fade)

Sell 2026-04-15 255/260 put spread and sell 2026-04-15 270/275 call spread (use 255/260P & 270/275C strikes)

Credit: $1.10-$1.60

Max loss: $3.90

Max gain: $1.60

BE: Downside ~253.4 / Upside ~271.6 (depends on collected credit)

Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before earnings if IV remains at or above current mid-20s and price is inside $257–$265 pin band

Dealer GEX +$328.1M and concentrated OI at $260/$265 create pinning; selling balanced premium sized to EM captures theta while dealer hedging reduces realized gamma exposure

Outperforms: Stock pins inside the 1-week EM ($254.43–$266.54) and dealer pinning holds

Underperforms: Guidance or shock drives a >~3% gap beyond EM bounds; heavy post-earnings directional move

Long Calendar Put (play mild downside, collect higher front IV)

Buy 2026-04-24 260P, sell 2026-04-15 260P (calendar using strikes 260 put longer-term vs front-week short)

Debit: $0.70-$1.20

Max loss: $1.20

Max gain: Scenario-dependent (upside limited by sale decay; gains if front IV collapses and underlying drifts lower into longer-dated put)

BE: Flexible; favors move below $260 into expiration of short leg or front-week decay

Trigger: Enter when term-structure front IV is elevated relative to back (watch 4/10 ATM 26.5% vs 4/24 24.4%) and you want asymmetric downside exposure

Captures short-term premium (front) while retaining optionality from the longer-dated put; fits mixed flow and modest downside protection interest.

Outperforms: Mild-to-moderate downside inside 1–2 week EM or front-week IV compresses while longer-dated stays supported

Underperforms: Large gap up in earnings or abrupt volatility expansion in back-dated options

Long Straddle (directional/volatility breakout)

Buy 2026-04-15 260 straddle (260C + 260P)

Debit: $6.50-$8.50

Max loss: $8.50

Max gain: Unlimited on upside / large on downside

BE: $260 6.50 / $266.50 to $260 8.50 / $268.50 (approx)

Trigger: Enter 0–2 days before event if you expect a >EM move or IV has not yet priced a move into the front expiries

Straight forward directional/volatility play when expecting a large surprise; expensive versus credit strategies but provides symmetric upside.

Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (large earnings/guidance surprise or catalyst)

Underperforms: Stock pins near $260–$265 and IV compresses; or if move stays within 1–2 week EM

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for 6d is ±$6.05 (2.3%). Guidance-driven surprise or macro shock can exceed this and blow out short-credit structures.

!IV crush impact: Term structure suggests modest post-event IV movement (only a few vol points). For long straddle buyers, the expected IV move may still remove 20–40% of option value if move is muted.

!Liquidity: AAPL chains are liquid overall (Total OI 3,950,307; vol 682,772) but some wide-ask strikes (deep OTM) show sparse liquidity — use legs near high OI strikes (260/265/270) to avoid execution slippage.

!Sizing: Because dealer GEX is large and pinning increases the chance of mean reversion toward GEX clusters, size short premium trades smaller than usual (e.g., 25–50% normal allocation) to survive unexpected gaps.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into Apr 30: watch front-week ATM IV (26.5% on 4/10) vs 1-2 week mid-20s to confirm whether sellers/buyers are positioning

?Price action relative to GEX pin magnets at $260.00 and $265.00 — sustained move away reduces viability of short premium

?Unusual near-term put flow at $257.50 and $262.50 (high vol spikes) — indicates protective demand that can steepen downside skew

?Call OI wall at $280–$310 — heavy structural calls can cap upside or create supply if underlying chops higher

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.