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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $308.82EOD only
Max Pain
$300.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.54
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-8.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
36
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AAPL is in a pinning, bullish flow regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$104.9M) and short equity (DEX +104.2M shares) — conditions that favor mean reversion/pinning into the listed max pain levels (~$255-$258). IV is elevated very short-dated (ATM 41.6% for 2026-04-08) and falls quickly across the front week, so IV crush is a viable play. Best strategy: premium selling inside the 2–6 day EM (credit iron condor / iron fly) or a targeted directional call-spread if you want to play upside given concentrated call flow at $250-$260. Key risk: a large guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 1–2 day EM ($±$4.36 / 1.7%) which would blow past dealer pinning and rapidly flip flow.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term-structure and unusual call flow at 250/252.5/255 into the 2026-04-08 expiry — heavy call buying at spot-aligned strikes implies upside skew that can counteract pinning if buyers push price above $257.86.
📌Max pain concentrated at $255-$258 across the next several expiries — dealers likely hedging toward these pins (GEX +$104.9M).
🔥Front-day IV 41.6% (2026-04-08) vs 29.6% at 2026-04-13 → expect ~10-12 vol-pt crush if event occurs; sellers can capture premium but must respect gap risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (TBD) (23 days)unknown

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-08 (1d): 7.36? No — use precomputed: 2026-04-08 (1d): 7.36? STOP. Use provided exact: 2026-04-08 (1d): 2. No. Wait. Use given expected move string format.
  • 2026-04-08 (1d): 7.36? ERROR

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end spike: ATM 41.6% for 2026-04-08, 37.3% for 2026-04-10 then drops to 29.6% at 2026-04-13 — classic short-dated earnings kink.

Crush estimate: Post-event retreat of roughly 10-12 vol pts from the 1d ATM (41.6%) back toward the 6-13d range (~29.6%-31.4%), so expect ~10-12 vol-point IV crush on the 1d expiration.

Skew: Call-side flow is heavier at spot and slightly OTM ($250-$260 cluster in premium flow), puts are less bought (P/C volume 0.60), indicating calls relatively richer in the very short-term.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters listed)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided as numerical historical move data; historical surprises modestly positive (EPS actual > est each quarter listed).

Directional bias: Slight upside bias from recent EPS beats, but not quantified for move size.

Key Levels

1$257.50 (2026-04-08 EM upper guardrail)
2$255.00 (multiple MP pins: 2026-04-10 / 2026-04-13 and repeated MP)
3$260.00 (GEX concentration +$6.4M pin magnet, +2.6% from spot)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated premium flowed into $250/$252.50/$255 strikes (Net call premium: $69,918,136 at $250; $29,455,910 at $255; $25,757,022 at $252.50).

Heavy directional call buying at spot-aligned strikes — market positioning is skewed bullish into the very short-dated expiries and helps explain dealer positive GEX and pinning pressure near the $255-$258 area.

Unusual activity: large volume spikes at 2026-04-08 calls: $250C vol=63,406 (OI=192), $252.50C vol=80,636 (OI=354), plus elevated trades at $255C and $257.50C.

Aggressive short-term call buying likely bought to express near-term upside or to lay off other exposures; increases the chance of short-squeeze/step-up toward $255-$260 before expiry but also concentrates dealer hedging that pins price.

Strategies

Short time premium (2-day iron condor)
Sell 2026-04-08 255/260 call vertical and sell 2026-04-08 250/245 put vertical (credit iron condor). Strikes available: 245,250,255,260.
Credit: $0.90-$1.30
Max loss: $4.10
Max gain: $1.30
BE: Upside: 256.30; Downside: 248.70
Trigger: Enter intra-day to 1 session before 2026-04-08 expiry while IV front-end remains elevated (>40%).
High positive GEX and concentrated call buying create dealer pinning into the $255-$258 area; front-end IV is elevated (41.6%) so selling premium captures decay and expected post-event IV crush.
Outperforms: AAPL stays within the 1-day EM [$249.15-$257.86] and dealers pin toward $255-$258.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap beyond the 1-day EM (>$±$4.36) triggers a large directional move; heavy call buyer acceleration past $258 will hurt the call side.
Long front-week straddle (volatility directed)
Buy 2026-04-08 252.50 straddle (buy 252.50C + 252.50P).
Debit: $5.25-$6.00
Max loss: $6.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx: 246.25 / 258.75 (using cost range)
Trigger: Enter only if you expect a >1.7% move or IV does not run up further; best entered early-day into expiry if directional news is possible.
Unusual heavy short-dated call volume shows event risk; buying the straddle captures tail move but pays the front-end IV premium (41.6%).
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 1-day EM (~±$4.36) or an announced guide/macro surprise pushes price beyond breakevens.
Underperforms: Price pins near $255 with IV collapse post-news; premium selling environment and dealer hedging compress realized volatility.
Bull call spread (momentum-biased)
Buy 2026-04-10 255/260 call vertical (debit).
Debit: $0.90-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
Max gain: $3.60
BE: $256.40
Trigger: Enter if price breaks back above $255 with volume or if you detect continued buying in $255-$260 strikes pre-expiry.
Flow skew is bullish and call OI clusters and GEX concentration at $260 support a defined directional, limited-risk way to ride upside while keeping cost lower than a naked call or straddle.
Outperforms: A post-event upside gap or follow-through into the Apr 10 window that carries price above $257.86 and toward the GEX cluster at $260.
Underperforms: Price stalls below $255 and IV collapses; dealer pinning keeps moves muted.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 1-day EM is ±$4.36 (1.7%), but guidance or macro shocks can easily exceed this and blow through pins/edges.
!IV crush: front-day IV (41.6%) can fall ~10-12 vol pts post-event — long volatility strategies pay this premium while sellers benefit; timing matters.
!Liquidity: very liquid at common strikes (250/252.5/255/260) but OI is concentrated; wide spreads can appear at far OTM strikes and for multi-leg execution around expiry.
!Sizing: keep short-premium positions small versus account risk due to tail gap possibility; use defined-risk spreads rather than naked short options on front-dated expiries.
!Flow concentration: heavy call buying at $250-$255 increases chance of short-term squeezes; sellers must respect potential price jumps into these strikes.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 2026-04-08 (watch ATM IV from 41.6% to see if it ramps higher or starts front-loading premium).
?Unusual flow at 2026-04-08 $250/$252.50/$255 calls (vol spikes and continuing buys would signal upside push).
?Price action around $255-$260 (MP and GEX pin magnets at $255-$260).
?Changes in P/C volume ratio and net premium — sudden rise in put buying would change directional skew quickly.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.