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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $308.33EOD only
Max Pain
$300.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.90
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-8.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AAPL is in a pinning regime (GEX +$258.7M) sitting essentially at max pain ($257.50/$258) with normal volatility (Avg IV 30.6%). Best strategy is to sell premium sized to handle gap risk (short iron/condor into the pin), or, if targeting the actual April 30 event, buy a front-month straddle/vertical that includes that expiry. Key risk: a large guidance-driven gap around the April 30 print that exceeds the short premium's breakevens (~±1.6% over 2 trading days).

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP
Most important: Monitor IV term structure into the April 30 event and whether dealers remain pinned around $258 (GEX concentrations at $260, $257.50, $255).
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-04-30 (TBD) — nearest expiries (4/10, 4/13, 4/20) do not contain the print; position expiries accordingly.
📌Spot $258.90 sits right at max pain ($258 / 257.50) with GEX pin concentrations clustered at $255-$262.50 — expect pin pressure into short expiries.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (Avg IV 30.6%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$258.7M)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net premium $146.3M; P/C vol 0.66)
Spot vs MP
At (Spot $258.90 vs Max Pain $257.50/$258)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (22 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): ±$4.22 (1.6%) [$254.68 - $263.12]
  • 2026-04-13 (5d): ±$5.74 (2.2%) [$253.16 - $264.64]
  • 2026-04-20 (12d): ±$9.03 (3.5%) [$249.87 - $267.92]
  • 2026-05-01 (23d): ±$15.38 (5.9%) [$243.52 - $274.27]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term expirations show ATM IV ~27.5% (2026-04-10) then a modest dip/variance across the 2-16d curve (4/13 ATM 24.5%, 4/20 ATM 25.3%); longer expiries that cover the April 30 event pick up (5/01 ATM 30.0%).

Crush estimate: Minimal for the next 2-day expirations since no confirmed event inside them; for the actual April 30 earnings expect elevated IV in the week surrounding the event (5/01 ATM 30.0%) — crush likely but limited relative to larger-IV names (estimate: single-digit vol-point move for front-months vs. pre-event levels).

Skew: Put/call activity is skewed toward calls at near-term strikes (heavy call premium flow at $260, $257.50) while put OI clusters exist down near $247.50-$250; overall skew is call-leaning on flow but dealers are net long gamma (pinning).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters listed: each beat of estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Historical surprises are small (EPS beats of +$0.02 to +$0.10) — past prints show limited shock magnitude vs. estimates

Directional bias: Slight positive bias around prior prints (consistent small beats), but not a reliable gap-magnitude signal

Key Levels

1$257.50 (max pain pin as of 2026-04-08)
2$260.00 (GEX concentration +$17.3M, pin magnet, +0.4% from spot)
3EM (2d): $254.68 - $263.12

Flow Highlights

Very large premium traded at $260.00 (Call $24,352,866 / Put $10,796,260 / Net $13,556,606).

Aggressive bullish call flow or systematic call-selling; combined with GEX concentrations at $260/$257.50, dealers are likely pressuring the spot toward that zone.

Heavy volume at $257.50 options for 2026-04-10 (Calls Vol=32,820 OI=6,254; Puts Vol=16,227 OI=2,001).

Short-dated pinning activity: market participants are transacting both sides around the spot, reinforcing dealer pin incentive near $257.50-$260.

Strategies

Short iron condor (short premium into pin)
Sell 255C / Buy 265C (2026-04-10) + Sell 255P / Buy 245P (2026-04-10)
Credit: $4.50-$5.20
Max loss: $5.10
Max gain: $4.50
BE: Lower ≈ $250.50; Upper ≈ $259.50 (approx. 255 ± credit)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before expiration (into the short-dated pin) if IV remains stable and GEX stays positive.
Pinning regime (GEX +$258.7M) and concentrated OI around 255-260 favor selling premium; the short 4/10 wings capture dealer pin pressure.
Outperforms: Stock remains inside the 2d EM rail ($254.68-$263.12) and dealers keep hedging near $258.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap around Apr 30 or other catalyst causes a >1.6% move beyond the breakevens, or sudden IV spike widens bid/ask.
Long straddle (event-dated capture)
Buy 260 straddle exp 2026-05-01 (captures Apr 30 earnings)
Max loss: ≈$8.50 (estimate premium paid)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈$251.5 / $268.5 (260 ± premium estimate)
Trigger: Buy 2-5 days before Apr 30 if IV hasn't already ramped above the 5/01 ATM (~30.0%).
Earnings date is on 2026-04-30; the 5/01 expiry contains the event and ATM IV there is higher (30.0%), making a directional/volatility play logical for a material reaction.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 5/01 EM (~±$15.38) or when guidance creates a large gap.
Underperforms: The stock prints a muted reaction inside the straddle breakevens or IV collapses more than expected pre/ post-release.
Diagonal/bull-call spread (bull lean, limited risk)
Buy 257.50C / Sell 265.00C exp 2026-05-01 (net debit)
Max loss: $2.75
Max gain: $4.75
BE: $260.25
Trigger: Enter on constructive flow (continued heavy call buying at 260) or after a technical push above $259 with IV stable.
Leverages heavy near-term call demand (257.50 and 260 flow) while capping cost; aligns with bullish flow and pinning regime.
Outperforms: Stock rallies into the $264+ area (approaching structural call OI wall at $280-$310) and IV remains stable or rises.
Underperforms: Stock stalls inside the 2d EM or falls back toward $253-255; big down gaps will blow past the spread's protection.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: April 30 (earnings) can cause a guidance-driven gap that exceeds short-dated breakevens; 2d EM is only ±$4.22 (1.6%).
!IV crush: For trades that include the Apr 30 event, IV on the 5/01 expiry is already higher (30.0%) — if you buy vol, expect a post-print IV drop; short premium sellers face re-rating risk if IV rises before expiry.
!Liquidity/width: Front-week options are liquid (large volumes and active OI at 255/257.5/260) but deeper wings (e.g., 245/265) show wider spreads and lower OI — size accordingly.
!Sizing: Given GEX concentration (notable pin magnets at $260, $257.50, $255), keep short premium position sizes moderate relative to account gamma exposure; dealers may amplify moves near flip zones.
!Flow concentration: Heavy call flow at $260 and call OI walls at $280-$310 could create asymmetric upside gamma supply if a major catalyst reverses dealer positioning.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into Apr 30 across 5/01 expiry (5/01 ATM 30.0%)
?Unusual activity at near-spot strikes: the large 2026-04-10 and 2026-04-13 257.50/260 trades
?Price action relative to GEX concentrations at $260.00 (+$17.3M), $257.50 (+$9.7M), and $255.00 (+$11.8M)
?Net premium flow and any sudden increase in put volume (P/C vol currently 0.66)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.