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USO

United States Oil FundClose $152.96EOD only
Max Pain
$143.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.13
2.7% from close
Price Gap
-9.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
1.67
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7.5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Credit spreads to limit risk
Invalidation: VIX above 22 or spot breaks gamma flip at 130
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV significantly elevated (76% vs VIX 18.43)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front week IV extreme (0 DTE >180%); backwardation in near term, declining further out

⚠️0DTE IV extreme; avoid naked positions
📈Dealer long gamma $72M, may amplify moves near pin levels

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+72.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,227 (12.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI floor $85-$130 (15,227 contracts), call OI wall $157-$170. Max pain $132, $138, $135.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk due to OI concentrations and market maker gamma positioning; spot near gamma flip at 130.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $152.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $160.00 call
Bearish diagonal: sell near-term call, buy longer-term call, benefiting from declining IV and time decay.
Debit: $4.93-$6.02
Max loss: $6.02
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor IV term structure; exit if spot nears strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $152.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $160.00 put
Bearish diagonal: sell near-term put, buy longer-term put, profiting from time decay and IV steepness.
Debit: $12.02-$14.69
Max loss: $14.69
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Watch for spot breaching gamma flip at 130; adjust if needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE options face extreme IV; avoid short premium.
!Large put OI below spot may pin price near $130-$135.
!Unexpected news could trigger gamma squeeze given dealer long gamma.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.