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USO

United States Oil FundClose $121.32EOD only
Max Pain
$125.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.58
6.2% from close
Price Gap
+3.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.60
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative (2–4% portfolio risk)
Primary: Short-dated iron-condor: sell 7–12Δ put and call wings (target deltas ~‑0.12/+0.12), buy wider 25–30Δ wings for defined risk; initial hedge: 0.25 long delta via stock or calls if move >3% intraday; position scale: start 50% planned size, add to hedge-only on realized theta; max loss per structure capped by buy wings.
Invalidation: Spot breach of $106.72 support, sustained front-IV collapse <50% or VIX spike >+40% vs base leading to margin/assignment stress
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Front-term IV >> VIX (ATM 100–120 d1–d3; avg IV ~85 vs VIX 19.5)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep front skew; very rich 1–4d expiries vs calendar—roll-down expected over 1–3 weeks.

⚠️Very rich 1–3d IV yields attractive short-premium but extreme gamma/assignment risk at expiry
📌Max-pain pins near $123/$118/$120; dealer GEX positive -> pinning likely around expiries

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+22.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 29,363 (29.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~29.8% below spot; put floor $68–$110 and call wall $148

Verdict: High pin risk to $123/$118/$120 next expiries; elevated chance of short-option assignment and chop unless clear directional break

Premium Opportunities

Risk Alerts

!Assignment risk on short ITM puts/calls—be ready to take/close positions pre-expiry
!Margin shock if front-IV reprices or VIX spikes; ensure liquidity for maintenance margin or cut to zero
!Early-exercise risk on deep ITM options around dividends/expiries—use pre-expiry roll/close
!Tail-gap hedge trigger: >5% intraday move or front-IV move >40% => buy protective wings, reduce size, or convert to debit spreads
!Escalation steps: (1) close/roll nearest wing, (2) buy protective wing or stock hedge, (3) cut size to zero if margin exceeds tolerance
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.