thetaOwl
HomeOptionsUSOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $128.25EOD only
Max Pain
$123.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.62
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-5.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
21
Low premium
P/C OI
1.52
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Hedge-adjusted, reduced-size credit spreads or defined-risk short-dated structures with wider wings
Invalidation: Sustained move >6% away from max-pain, sudden short-dated IV spike >+25% vs current term, major event-driven gap (earnings/guide) or concentrated call OI causing a gamma flip/forced reflow
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Front-week IV distorted: extreme short-dated put skew and elevated near-term IV vs VIX; 2–4W rich then slopes down into summer
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-week stress: ATM IV uneven, skew favors puts; roll premium exists but skew/flow stress tests required before selling

⚠️Extreme short-dated put skew; selling requires stress tests and wider hedges
📌Max-pain cluster $119–$123 with high put OI concentration; monitor concentrated call OI for gamma flip risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+79.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,209 (22.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated $68–$110; max-pain at $119–$123; notable call OI pockets that could flip gamma post-flow

Verdict: Elevated pin risk with concentrated short-dated put interest plus concentrated call OI risk — expiry hedging and forced flows possible; maintain tighter hedges and reduced sizing

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $133.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $135.00 call
Sell 2026-05-22 $133 call and buy 2026-06-18 $135 call to collect front-week theta and fade distorted short-dated skew vs cheaper back-month IV.
Debit: $0.63-$0.77
Max loss: $0.77
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Keep size reduced; tighten or close if spot >6% from max-pain, short IV spikes >+25% or concentrated call flow; roll or widen wings into dips.
#2
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-10-16 $125.00 call + sell 2026-07-17 $125.00 call
Buy 2026-10-16 $125 LEAP call and sell 2026-07-17 $125 short calls to collect decay while retaining longer-term upside.
Debit: $2.48-$3.03
Max loss: $3.03
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Use reduced sizing; avoid when short-dated IV spikes or pin risk rises; roll shorts or close into major gaps/earnings.

Risk Alerts

!Upcoming earnings/event in the week of expiry — reassess pre-announcement exposure
!Spot >6% move from $123 invalidates pin thesis
!Rapid short-dated IV spike or large sell-to-open call blocks causing flow reversal/gamma flip
!Unexpected liquidity withdrawal around expiries
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.