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USO

United States Oil FundClose $116.04EOD only

Max Pain

$125.00

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.12

8.7% from close

Price Gap

+8.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.61

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

USO Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

USO IV >> VIX (avg IV ~78 vs VIX 18.9)

Favorable?

Term structure: Front-loaded short-dated richness (2–4d ATM/Call IVs extreme; 4d call IV ~129.6) with steep term slope to 39–59d.

⚠️Very high short-dated call skew and elevated IV concentration into next expiries

📉Low liquidity / wide bid-ask in short-dated strikes increases execution and slippage risk

🧨High early-assignment and gamma exposure on short-dated short calls; manage deltas tightly

📌Max-pain cluster 118–125 aligns with put OI concentration ~29k (25.8% below spot)

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-5.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 29,045 (25.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated 68–110 with pins clustering at $125 (4/22) and $118 (4/24–4/29)

Verdict: Pin risk materializes around 118–125 over near expiries; expect amplified moves into expiries and watch 125/118 dates for settlement pressure

Premium Opportunities

Call calendar

Sell 2026-05-22 $125.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $125.00 call

Harvest rich short-dated call premium while buying the next liquid monthly to limit naked exposure and gamma; benefits if price stays near short strike into short expiry.

Debit: $1.53-$1.87

Max loss: $1.87

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Scale in with limits, roll short leg forward if >50% adverse move or IV collapses; close if sustained close >128.9 or dealer GEX flips positive.

Put calendar

Sell 2026-05-29 $125.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $125.00 put

Sell rich short-dated put and buy Jun put to earn front premium while capping naked short risk via the long leg.

Debit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $1.40

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Use staggered limit entries, tighten size into expiry; roll/close on large directional break below 118 or rapid IV collapse.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer GEX negative (~-$5.4M) can amplify moves vs naive selling

!Wide bid-ask and thin tapes impair fills—use limit-based, staggered entries

!High early-assignment/gamma risk on short-dated options; avoid naked short on front week

!Rollover/expiry weekend liquidity gaps can cause dislocations—reduce size into expiries

!Use narrower trade management: tighter stops, smaller size, leg hedges and step-out plan

!Have explicit GEX/IV shock playbook: hedge delta, close or widen wings, reprice exposures immediately

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.