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USO

United States Oil FundClose $152.96EOD only
Max Pain
$143.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.13
2.7% from close
Price Gap
-9.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
1.67
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $136 or VIX above 20
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Elevated: avg IV 75% vs VIX 17.4 (ratio 4.3x).
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep front-end backwardation (0DTE 36% to 2DTE 72%) then gradual decline, indicating near-term event risk.

⚠️High IV and pinning near $145 max pain; premium selling favorable but watch gamma flip.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+3.3M)

OI concentrations: Put-heavy OI (P/C OI 1.68); max pain $145; call wall $157-170; put floor $80-100.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near $145; spot at MP; dealer long gamma (+3.3M) dampens moves.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $140.00/$136.00 put spread
Sell 140/136 put spread to collect premium with defined risk.
Credit: $1.98-$2.42
Max loss: $1.58
BE: $137.58
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if USO breaks below 136. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $140.00/$136.00 put wing and $150.00/$151.00 call wing
Sell 140/136 put and 150/151 call wings for credit.
Credit: $2.43-$2.97
Max loss: $1.03
BE: 137.03 / 152.97
Mgmt: Manage at 50% gain; exit if price nears wings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!High IV term structure indicates near-term event risk.
!Spot within 0.5% of max pain; pin risk.
!Dealer gamma long supports range but flip could accelerate.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.