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USO

United States Oil FundClose $105.48EOD only
Max Pain
$109.00
Next expiry Jul 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.72
3.5% from close
Price Gap
+3.52
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.46
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Selling premium
Invalidation: Spot below $100 gamma flip or above $114.51 resistance.
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18; override: Base 5 aligned with GEX/flow, near max pain, favorable VIX; +4 deterministic bonus.

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Average IV 62.9% is 3.6x VIX 17.65, rich premiums.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end term structure elevated; 2D ATM 34.7% to 53D 45.7% moderate contango, longer dates ~40%.

📈High IV: 62.9% avg well above VIX, favoring premium selling.
⚠️Bearish flow: PC vol ratio 1.38, OI ratio 1.48, caution for put sellers.
📍Gamma flip at $100: large put OI 6.6% below spot, potential pin.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-56.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,331 (6.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated at $100 (30.3k contracts, 6.6% below spot). Max pain pins: $107 (Jul1), $110 (Jul2), $106 (Jul8).

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near max pain; spot at $107.14 between defense levels. Expect mean reversion to $107-$106.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $100.00/$90.00 put spread
Sell Jul24 $100/$90 put spread; IV rich at 62.9% (3.6x VIX).
Credit: $0.97-$1.18
Max loss: $8.82
BE: $98.82
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $107.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $100.00/$90.00 put wing and $118.00/$128.00 call wing
Sell Jul24 $100/$90 put and $118/$128 call; wide range captures premium.
Credit: $1.65-$2.01
Max loss: $7.99
BE: 97.99 / 120.01
Mgmt: Adjust if spot approaches either wing. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (71%).
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $118.00/$128.00 call spread
Sell Jul24 $118/$128 call spread; limited gain if spot falls.
Credit: $0.68-$0.83
Max loss: $9.17
BE: $118.83
Mgmt: Close if spot rises above $114.51. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (71%).

Risk Alerts

!Volatility regime high and trending bearish; avoid short gamma near events.
!Watch for collapse below $100 gamma flip.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.