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USO

United States Oil FundClose $114.88EOD only
Max Pain
$117.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.20
3.7% from close
Price Gap
+2.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 5, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short call credit spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $122.54 resistance
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
USO avg IV 66% vs VIX 17.28 — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end contango with very high near-term IV and severe skew; call IV notably higher than put IV at short duration

🔴MaxPain $118-$120 near spot; pin risk high for short puts
📈Call IV/put IV spread >30% points at 4d; extreme call premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-57.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,419 (11.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: MaxPain $118 (2d), $120 (4d), $109 (9d); put OI 32,419 below spot

Verdict: High pin risk due to max pain clustering near current spot; avoid naked short puts

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $120.00/$122.00 call spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $120/$122 call spread to profit from IV contraction or bearish move, limited risk.
Credit: $0.45-$0.55
Max loss: $1.45
BE: $120.55
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $118 invalidation; roll or close early to avoid gamma spike.

Risk Alerts

!Spot below MP and bearish flow increases risk of move toward put floor
!Negative GEX (-$57.9M) amplifies moves
!Skew suggests potential for sharp moves if call walls break
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.