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USO

United States Oil FundClose $103.98EOD only
Max Pain
$106.00
Next expiry Jul 8, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.69
3.5% from close
Price Gap
+2.02
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 19, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Long Calendar Spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $157 or below $133
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: Aligned with backwardated IV curve

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
69.3% avg IV vs 18.0 VIX – extreme divergence
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Backwardated: front-end 50-60%, longer-term ~49% – less favorable for premium selling

⚠️Near-term IV spikes – theta decay may be offset by vega swings

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+41.7M)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $143 (5/20, 5/27); call wall $170; put floor $80-$100

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near $143 – spot may pin at expiration

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $150.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later-term call at same $150 strike, capturing time decay advantage.
Debit: $3.31-$4.04
Max loss: $4.04
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor pin risk near $143; exit if spot breaches $150 short strike.
#2
Put calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $150.00 put
Sell near-term put, buy later-term put at $150, collecting elevated premium but with pin risk.
Debit: $3.65-$4.46
Max loss: $4.46
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close before expiration if spot near $143 to avoid pin assignment.

Risk Alerts

!No meaningful put OI below spot; call wall at $170 may act as gamma flip
!High vol with backwardation – beware gap risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.