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USO

United States Oil FundClose $125.84EOD only
Max Pain
$110.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.98
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-15.84
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
High premium
P/C OI
1.65
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
USO Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: No premium-selling bias — favor defined-risk, hedged structures (long calendar or debit spreads)
Invalidation: VIX >30 or spot breach and close <101.99 with follow-through
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 5.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV elevated (~85) vs VIX 17; short-dated ATM crushed by expiry distortions
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep front-week skew and elevated near-term IV, falling into multi-month contango

⚠️Dealer GEX negative (~-$55.7M) implies hedging can amplify moves
ℹ️Spot sits above max-pain; OI concentrated ~13.8% below spot near $100 gamma flip

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Trending ($-55.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,083 (13.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated $67–$110; notable pins at $110/$122/$125

Verdict: Elevated pin risk into weekly expiries; downside OI concentration raises pin sensitivity

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $130.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $112.00 call
Capture front‑month decay by selling short call and holding longer call for tail protection.
Debit: $6.62-$8.09
Max loss: $8.09
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim or close if spot>110 or VIX>30; roll long farther OTM or widen spread if IV normalizes.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $123.50 call / buy 2026-07-17 $115.00 call
Lower cost diagonal that still limits downside via long leg but may suffer fills.
Debit: $5.20-$6.35
Max loss: $6.35
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Avoid large size on poor fills; same invalidation (spot>110); consider smaller position or wait for better liquidity. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Large negative GEX may amplify directional moves
!Steep near-term IV and expiry flow can widen spreads
!Close below 101.99 invalidates neutral/hedged thesis

Read the Theta analysis for USO for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.