Home Options USOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $123.85EOD only

Max Pain

$129.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.51

3.6% from close

Price Gap

+5.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.57

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

USO Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5.0; +1 GEX pinning (+$8.4M); +1 rich IV (Avg IV 78.7% vs VIX 18.36); -1 bearish flow / net premium -$18.1M; -0.5 spot 4.0% from nearest MP; net 5.0 -> reported 5.0 (no override)

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 78.7% vs VIX 18.36 — IV extremely rich relative to market

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end skewed: 8d ATM 80.5% and 17-45d range ~75.6%→64.8% — steep near-term vol, good for selling near-dated defined-risk spreads and calendars if you want to buy longer dated protection

💰Avg IV 78.7% is very rich vs VIX 18.36 — premium selling edge is strong

⚠️Short-dated IV still elevated (1d ATM 61.6%, 8d 80.5%) — consider defined-risk for weeklies or 30-45 DTE for steadier theta

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $123.85 is below nearest MP $129.00 (2026-04-15) — price sits below some short-dated max pain points

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$8.4M) — dealers are long gamma on net which creates pin magnet behavior near concentrated strikes

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Gamma flip near $100 — below $100 dealers' hedging can amplify moves and remove pinning; maintain defined-risk if price approaches flip

OI concentrations: Large put walls at $75 (45,111 OI), $80 (38,364 OI), $100 (26,805 OI) and notable near-term put/call action at $120/$125 (heavy put flow net) and call GEX concentration at $130/$135

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX + concentrated near-term call GEX at $130/$135 and put flow at $120/$125 create pin magnets that help defined-risk credit positions, but bearish flow and net premium negative mean downside pressure exists.

Premium Opportunities

put spread (cash-secured / defined-risk)

Sell 120 / Buy 115 put spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

45 DTE sits where ATM IV (May 29 ATM 64.8%) still rich and puts show heavy demand — selling against the $120 put (OTM today) collects elevated premium while GEX pinning + near-term put OI at $120/$125 supports this side. Put spread keeps defined risk and is cash-secured.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $118.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-65% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes and out in time if price trades inside short put (e.g., close / roll if USO < $119.34 2d EM or approaching $111.35); cut loss if price < $111.35 or spread value reaches 60-75% of max loss.

iron condor (defined-risk wings)

Sell 120P /110P and Sell 135C /140C exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

Wide wings take advantage of rich two-sided IV and GEX pinning between $120-$135; expected 45d range ($101.15 - $146.55) makes these wings plausible for elevated credit while keeping defined risk. Positive GEX near $130/$135 helps cap upside.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: $6.50

BE: Put side 116.50 / Call side 139.50

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit or if either short strike is tested intraday; consider buying back the tested side and re-selling farther wings; cut losses if either short strike is broken and price close beyond that strike for 2 sessions.

covered call (overwriting stock / buy-write)

Sell 125 call exp 2026-04-22 (8 DTE) against stock at $123.85

8 DTE front-week calls (125C mid ~$5.80 in chain) offer strong theta capture with rich short-dated IV (8d ATM ~80.5%). This is a high-premium, short-duration overwriting play — suitable if you already own or plan to buy shares.

Credit: $5.50-$6.10

Max loss: Stock exposure (unbounded down to zero) offset by premium

BE: $118.25

Mgmt: If assigned, accept sale or roll up for credit if bullish; close at 65-75% of max premium realized; buy back if USO rallies and trades >$128 (upper 2d EM) intraday or if price threats $129 MP on expiration day.

calendar (short-dated call sell / longer call buy)

Sell 125 call exp 2026-04-22 and buy 125 call exp 2026-06-18 (buy longer-dated to hedge)

Front-week IV is very rich relative to mid-June (8d ATM ~80.5% vs 65d ATM 60.0%). A calendar collects front-week theta while owning longer dated upside exposure — useful against pinning at $125/$129. Use small sizing due to directional risk.

Debit: $0.40-$1.10

Max loss: Debit paid (~$0.40-$1.10)

BE: Directional: benefits if spot stays near $125 into short expiry; long call protects upside

Mgmt: Close short leg for target profit 60-80% of short premium or if short strike is tested (>~$128 intraday); if volatility collapses, consider flipping to a diagonal or closing both legs at small loss. Cut loss if price closes beyond $136.35 (1w upper EM) or if implied vols invert severely.

Risk Alerts

!Multiple short-dated expirations and max pain near-term (2026-04-15 MP $129; 2026-04-17 MP $110; 2026-04-22 MP $125) — manage weeklies actively and avoid naked exposure across expirations.

!Gamma flip at ~$100 — if USO sells off toward $100, dealer pinning erodes and moves can accelerate; exit/convert credit positions as price approaches flip.

!Net premium flow is negative (Net Premium -$18.1M) and Flow: Bearish — skew risk to downside; prefer defined-risk put spreads rather than naked puts.

!Unusual flow: heavy put premium at $120/$125 (net put-heavy flow) and outsized OI at low strikes — be cautious of sudden downside pushes and sticky IV on the downside.

!No earnings or ex-dividend data provided — absence noted; still avoid selling naked into major macro events (inventory reports / OPEC) that can move oil/USO sharply.

Read the Theta analysis for USO for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.