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USO

United States Oil FundClose $137.27EOD only

Max Pain

$137.00

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.19

2.3% from close

Price Gap

-0.27

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.77

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

USO Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

ATM IV (16d) 71.8% vs VIX 18.17 — implied vol is extremely elevated versus equities and in absolute terms (Avg IV 78.7%).

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-loaded term premium: 2d 59.5% → 7d 70.7% → 16d 71.8%, then decays toward mid-50s by ~2–3 months. High short-term skew around earnings windows (4/17, 4/22).

💰Very rich front-month IV (16d 71.8%) provides attractive theta for defined-risk sellers.

⚠️Front-week IV spike is event-driven (earnings 4/17 and 4/22); selling into those events requires defined risk or waiting for IV to reset.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-1.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,865 (18.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call GEX magnets at $130 (+$5.4M), $125 (+$2.3M), $120 (+$3.4M). Large put OI concentrated well below spot ($75, $80, $67, $68) with a nearer put cluster at $110 (18,251 OI). Max pain near-dates: $127 (4/15), $110 (4/17), $125 (4/22).

Verdict: Mixed — call-side GEX at 120–130 creates resistance above spot beneficial to put-selling, but negative total GEX (-$1.9M) and a 'Trending' gamma regime raise the chance of directional moves. Pinning will help credit positions only if USO remains inside the 2d–1w EM ($117.30–$132.84).

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $111.00/$100.00 put spread

Sell a 30–45 DTE put credit with an 11-point protective long put (e.g., structure consistent with short ~111 / long ~100) to collect rich premium and limit tail exposure; use position sizing that anticipates a move into the $112.34 weekly EM lower guardrail.

Credit: $2.18-$2.66

Max loss: $8.34

BE: $108.34

Mgmt: Take 50–75% of max profit on charts; close or roll if price trades below the sold strike toward $112.34; reduce size into earnings or wait until after 4/22 to initiate.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-05-15 $108.00 cash-secured put

Sell a May (e.g., 2026-05-15) cash-secured put after 4/22 has cleared to capture rich post-event premium and avoid the 4/17 and 4/22 earnings windows. Target delta ~0.20 and strike near short-term support to improve probability of favorable fills or assignment at desired basis.

Credit: $2.56-$3.13

Max loss: $104.87

BE: $104.87

Mgmt: Initiate only after 4/22 or once IV compresses post-earnings; close/roll if price moves decisively below $112.34 or approaches put floor support at $107.54.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings: 2026-04-17 (in 2d) and 2026-04-22 (in 7d). Do not sell naked through these dates; prefer defined-risk or wait until after 4/22 for May expirations.

!Gamma flip ~$100 and negative Total GEX (-$1.9M) — trending gamma can produce accelerated moves; keep wings defined and size smaller.

!Concentrated call GEX at $120–$130 may pin or create sharp selling if touched; watch for short-call compression and forced dealer hedging.

!Front-loaded IV risk: if IV collapses post-earnings, short-dated premium value will compress rapidly — manage rolls proactively.

!Unusual flow: large multi-month odd strikes activity (deep OTM $25 puts, $190 calls) suggests institutional directional hedges; monitor for wing re-pricing.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.