Term structure: Humped at 8-day (40.2%), elevated plateau ~46-49% from 22 DTE onward.
Spot vs MP: Spot $360.59 is 6.3% below near-term max pain of $385 (3/23).
GEX regime: Trending (Total GEX -$49.7M). Dealers are net short gamma, amplifying price moves.
OI concentrations: Massive OI in far OTM calls ($960, $940). Near-term, watch $370, $375, $380, $400. Spot is below put-heavy $365-$370 cluster.
#1put spread
Sell $350/$345 Put Spread exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
High IV yields strong credit. Strike is below current spot and below the nearest max pain cluster ($367.5-$372.5). $350 aligns with a major premium flow support level (+$21.8M net call flow) and is near the 22-day expected move low ($327.04). Defined risk suits the trending regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if $350 is tested intraday. Exit for a loss on a daily close below $347.50.
#2iron condor
Sell $345/$340P x $390/$395C Iron Condor exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Wide 29 DTE structure capitalizes on high IV across the term structure. Puts are placed below key $350 support and the 29-day expected move low ($322.74). Calls are placed below the significant $400 OI call wall and the 29-day expected move high ($398.44).
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll untested side in if tested side reaches 21 DTE. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $350 Put exp 2026-05-08 (36 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own TSLA. Extremely high IV (46.4%) yields >6% ROI in 36 days. Strike is at strong OI and flow support ($350). The high credit provides a large buffer (~8.6% below spot).
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if put is ATM, targeting a credit. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $350 if still comfortable with the cost basis.
#4call credit spread
Sell $400/$405 Call Credit Spread exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish hedge. The $400 strike is a major OI call wall (28,724 OI) and aligns with several max pain points ($390-$400). Negative GEX makes sharp rallies more likely, so this is a hedge against put positions, not a primary sale.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit for a loss on a daily close above $398. Do not hold through earnings (est. 4/21).
!REGIME CHANGE: Gamma regime flipped from 'Pinning' to 'Trending' (GEX -$49.7M). This increases the risk of sharp, sustained moves against credit positions. Size smaller and use defined risk.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-21 — Close all short premium positions at least 5 days prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Spot is 6.3% below near-term max pain ($385). The magnetic pull is upward, but negative GEX means any move toward it could be volatile.
!Unusual activity in weekly calls ($357.5C, $340C for 4/06) and a massive $650C block for 4/10 (112.5% IV) suggests complex bullish positioning.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$432.1M), indicating institutional put buying (hedging or directional). This aligns with the negative GEX and supports a cautious stance.
!Long-dated max pain rises to $400 by mid-2026, indicating the market's longer-term pin anchor is higher, but the path may be turbulent.