Term structure: Humped at 1-day (24.3%), spikes to ~47% for 24-31 DTE, elevated through 2027.
Spot vs MP: Spot $371.75 is 3.4% below near-term max pain of $385 (3/23).
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$47.6M). Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.
OI concentrations: Massive OI in far OTM calls ($680, $960). Near-term, watch $370, $375, $380, $400. Spot is between put-heavy $370 and call-heavy $375/$380.
#1put spread
Sell $365/$360 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
High IV provides great credit. Strike is below current spot, below near-term max pain ($367.5 for 4/01), and aligns with a key OI support level ($365). Positive GEX supports a bounce or pin.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$0.91 credit remaining). Roll down/out if $365 is tested intraday. Exit for a loss on a daily close below $362.50.
#2iron condor
Sell $360/$355 Put x $390/$395 Call Iron Condor exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Captures wide expected move ($37.20). Puts are below key support and max pain cluster ($365-$370). Calls are below the significant $400 OI call wall. High IV across both sides.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll untested side in if tested side reaches 21 DTE. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $365 Put exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own TSLA. Extremely high IV (46.9%) yields >4.5% ROI in 31 days. Strike is at strong technical and OI support, below near-term max pain, and benefits from pinning regime.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if put is ATM, targeting a credit. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $365 if still comfortable with the cost basis.
#4call credit spread
Sell $400/$405 Call Credit Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish hedge or standalone. The $400 strike is a major OI call wall (28,709 OI) and aligns with several max pain points. Positive GEX makes a sharp rally above this level less likely.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit for a loss on a daily close above $398. Do not hold through earnings (est. 4/21).
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-21 — Close all short premium positions at least 5 days prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive net negative premium flow (-$859.5M) indicates institutional put buying (possibly hedging). Monitor for sustained downward pressure.
!Spot is below near-term max pain ($385). While pinning is favorable, it suggests initial gravitational pull is upward; be patient with put entries.
!Unusual activity in weekly puts (e.g., $377.5P for 4/01) at low IV suggests complex positioning; avoid selling those specific, crowded strikes.
!Long-dated max pain rises to $400 by mid-2026, indicating the market's longer-term pin anchor is higher.