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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$12.60

3.0% from close

Price Gap

-7.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

TSLA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; -1 mixed flow; -0 spot below MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 55.5% — Extremely elevated. Premium selling is highly favorable.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 1-day (24.3%), spikes to ~47% for 24-31 DTE, elevated through 2027.

💰IV >55% provides rich premium for sellers.

📈Term structure supports selling 30-45 DTE for maximum theta/vega harvest.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $371.75 is 3.4% below near-term max pain of $385 (3/23).

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$47.6M). Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.

OI concentrations: Massive OI in far OTM calls ($680, $960). Near-term, watch $370, $375, $380, $400. Spot is between put-heavy $370 and call-heavy $375/$380.

Verdict: Highly Favorable — Strong positive GEX and spot below max pain create a magnetic pull higher, supporting credit strategies, especially put sales.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $365/$360 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)

High IV provides great credit. Strike is below current spot, below near-term max pain ($367.5 for 4/01), and aligns with a key OI support level ($365). Positive GEX supports a bounce or pin.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $363.90

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$0.91 credit remaining). Roll down/out if $365 is tested intraday. Exit for a loss on a daily close below $362.50.

iron condor

Sell $360/$355 Put x $390/$395 Call Iron Condor exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)

Captures wide expected move ($37.20). Puts are below key support and max pain cluster ($365-$370). Calls are below the significant $400 OI call wall. High IV across both sides.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: 357.20 / 392.80

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll untested side in if tested side reaches 21 DTE. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.

cash-secured put

Sell $365 Put exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers willing to own TSLA. Extremely high IV (46.9%) yields >4.5% ROI in 31 days. Strike is at strong technical and OI support, below near-term max pain, and benefits from pinning regime.

Credit: $16.50-$19.50

Max loss: $348.50

BE: $348.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if put is ATM, targeting a credit. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $365 if still comfortable with the cost basis.

call credit spread

Sell $400/$405 Call Credit Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)

Defined-risk bearish hedge or standalone. The $400 strike is a major OI call wall (28,709 OI) and aligns with several max pain points. Positive GEX makes a sharp rally above this level less likely.

Credit: $1.05-$1.30

Max loss: $3.95

BE: $401.05

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit for a loss on a daily close above $398. Do not hold through earnings (est. 4/21).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 2026-04-21 — Close all short premium positions at least 5 days prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.

!Massive net negative premium flow (-$859.5M) indicates institutional put buying (possibly hedging). Monitor for sustained downward pressure.

!Spot is below near-term max pain ($385). While pinning is favorable, it suggests initial gravitational pull is upward; be patient with put entries.

!Unusual activity in weekly puts (e.g., $377.5P for 4/01) at low IV suggests complex positioning; avoid selling those specific, crowded strikes.

!Long-dated max pain rises to $400 by mid-2026, indicating the market's longer-term pin anchor is higher.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.