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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.69EOD only
Max Pain
$15.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.59
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 27 days (4/29). IV is elevated (66.8% for 4/29 expiration), supporting an IV crush play. The stock has a perfect 4/4 quarter EPS beat history and bullish flow. The best strategy is a defined-risk short strangle to capitalize on high IV and historical under-move potential. Key risk is the stock's position below max pain and near the gamma flip, which could amplify a directional move.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for perfect EPS beat history; +0.5 for bullish flow regime; +0.5 for elevated IV; -0.5 for spot below max pain and gamma flip
Most important: Perfect 4/4 quarter EPS beat history with consistent positive surprises. This creates a strong directional bias for a positive reaction, but the elevated IV still makes premium selling attractive.
📅Earnings confirmed for 4/29 (27 days out). IV already elevated at 66.8% for that expiration.
📈Critical Change: Gamma regime flipped from negative (-$9.6M) to positive (+$24.0M). This significantly reduces risk of accelerated directional moves.
✅Perfect Beat Rate maintained: 4/4 quarters of EPS beats with increasing surprise magnitude.
🎯Spot recovery: Price up to $15.85 from $15.44, now above gamma flip and closer to max pain.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 72%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$24.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$0.4M, P/C 0.54)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 6.8% (spot $15.85 vs MP $17)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Spot is above estimated gamma flip at $15. Positive GEX suggests mean-reverting behavior, reducing risk of accelerated moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (27 days)explicit from earnings data

Expected moves:

  • 4/29 (29d): ±$2.39 (15.1%) [$13.46 - $18.24]

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated across all expirations with peak at 4/29 (66.8% IV). Steep upward slope into earnings.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back toward ~50% IV

Skew: P/C volume ratio 0.54 shows continued call volume dominance, aligning with bullish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive reaction bias

Directional bias: Insufficient price data, but EPS surprise magnitude has been increasing (0.09 → 0.23 → 0.45 → 0.94)

Key Levels

1$15.00 (Gamma flip, massive put OI: 71,266)
2$16.00 (Major put OI: 57,614, MP for 4/02)
3$17.00 (Max Pain for many expirations)
4EM Bounds: $13.50 - $18.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy net premium flow at $12.00C (+$764,736) and $16.00C (+$760,157).

Continued bullish speculative flow in calls, targeting moves to $16+.

Unusual activity in 4/10 $10.00P (Vol 1,879 vs OI 712, 2.6x, IV 125.0%).

Extreme OTM put buying for earnings week, possibly protective hedging or speculative downside bets.

Large volume in 4/17 $17.50C (12,265 vol vs 5,043 OI, 2.4x).

Bullish positioning targeting a move above $17.50 post-earnings.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Earnings IV Crush)
Sell SOFI 4/29 $13.50 Put & $18.50 Call
Credit: $1.40-$1.70
Max loss: $3.60
Max gain: $1.70
BE: $11.80 / $20.20
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (around 4/22-4/24)
Capitalizes on elevated IV (66.8%) with defined risk. Strikes set at 1 standard deviation from spot, providing a 31.5% range. Perfect EPS beat history suggests reduced downside risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $13.50-$18.50 (wider than the 15.1% EM). IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens ($11.80 or $20.20).
Bull Call Spread (Directional Bias)
Buy SOFI 4/29 $16.00 Call, Sell SOFI 4/29 $18.00 Call
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: $1.15
BE: $16.85
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $15.50 support
Targets the bullish flow and perfect EPS beat history. Defined risk, capitalizes on high call OI at $19 and $22. Positive gamma regime supports gradual upward movement.
Outperforms: Stock closes above $16.85 on 4/29. Benefits from IV crush if bought early.
Underperforms: Stock closes below $16.00 on 4/29.
Iron Condor (Range-Bound Play)
Sell SOFI 4/29 $14.00/$13.00 Put Spread & $18.00/$19.00 Call Spread
Credit: $0.45-$0.60
Max loss: $0.55
Max gain: $0.60
BE: $13.40 / $18.60
Trigger: Enter 7-10 days before earnings
Defined risk play targeting the stock to stay within a 25.2% range. Lower capital requirement than strangle. Benefits from IV crush and time decay.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $14.00-$18.00 at expiration.
Underperforms: Stock closes below $13.40 or above $18.60 on 4/29.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Elevated. 15.1% EM is substantial. While historical EPS beats are positive, guidance could drive larger moves. Positive GEX reduces risk of accelerated moves.
!IV Crush: Significant. IV could drop 15-20 points post-earnings. This is the primary profit driver for short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Good in near-term expirations, with high OI at key strikes ($15, $16, $19, $22).
!Sizing: Keep position sizes small (1-2% of capital) due to binary earnings risk and 27-day timeframe.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $15.00 gamma flip level - holding above supports bullish thesis.
?IV trajectory into earnings – monitor for further elevation as date approaches.
?Flow in OTM calls ($20+) for signs of extreme bullish speculation building.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.