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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $18.24EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.16
6.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 3 days (4/02). IV remains elevated (61.1% for 3-day), supporting an IV crush play. Spot has recovered slightly to $15.44 but remains below the gamma flip (~$15), keeping negative gamma risk. Flow has turned bullish with net positive premium and low P/C ratio. The best strategy is a defined-risk short strangle, but with tighter strikes given improved sentiment. Key risk is a directional move amplified by negative dealer gamma.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 for clear IV kink at 4/02; +0.5 for improved flow (bullish net prem); -0.5 for spot still in negative gamma zone
Most important: Flow regime has shifted from mixed to bullish (net prem +$0.1M, P/C 0.45). This suggests reduced hedging pressure and potential for upside surprise, but spot remains in negative gamma territory.
🔄Critical Change: Flow regime has flipped from mixed/bearish to bullish (net prem +$0.1M, P/C 0.45 vs prior -$17M, P/C 0.98). This reduces downside hedging pressure.
📈Spot Recovery: Price up to $15.44 from $15.23, now closer to gamma flip. Negative gamma risk reduced but not eliminated.
✅Perfect Beat Rate: 4/4 quarters of EPS beats. Historical context now available and strongly positive.
🎯Expected Move Tightened: EM now ±4.4% ($0.69) vs prior ±6.7% ($1.02). This reflects time decay and potentially reduced uncertainty.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 76%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-9.6M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$0.1M, P/C 0.45)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 9.2% (spot $15.44 vs MP $17)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Spot is near estimated gamma flip. Negative gamma could still accelerate directional moves, but less severe than prior report.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (3 days)explicit from expected move date

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (3d): ±$0.69 (4.4%) [$14.75 - $16.12]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/02 (61.1% IV) vs. 62.3% for 4/10. Elevated IV across all expirations.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back toward ~40-45% IV

Skew: P/C volume ratio 0.45 shows heavy call volume dominance, aligning with bullish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive reaction bias

Directional bias: Insufficient price data

Key Levels

1$15.00 (Gamma flip, massive put OI: 71,224)
2$16.00 (Major put OI: 59,519, MP 4/02)
3$17.00 (Max Pain 3/27)
4EM Bounds: $14.50 - $16.00

Flow Highlights

Massive net positive premium flow at $2.00C (+$1.26M) and $12.00C (+$1.26M).

Extremely bullish speculative flow in deep OTM calls, possibly earnings lottery tickets.

Heavy volume in 4/10 $17.00C (17,431 vol vs 5,359 OI, 3.2x) and 4/17 $15.50C (9,319 vol vs 2,775 OI, 3.4x).

Bullish positioning targeting moves above key strikes post-earnings.

Unusual activity in 4/02 $9.00C (Vol 149 vs OI 32, 4.7x, IV 318.8%).

Extreme OTM call buying for earnings week, indicating speculative upside bets.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Tighter Strikes)
Sell SOFI 4/02 $14.50 Put & $16.50 Call
Credit: $0.35-$0.45
Max loss: $1.65
Max gain: $0.45
BE: $14.05 / $16.95
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (3/31-4/01).
Capitalizes on elevated IV (61.1%) with defined risk. Strikes set slightly wider than EM but tighter than prior report due to improved bullish flow. Provides a 13.0% range for stock to settle.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $14.50-$16.50 (wider than the 4.4% EM). IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens ($14.05 or $16.95).
Call Ratio Spread (Bullish Bias, Gamma Positive)
Buy 1 SOFI 4/02 $15.50 Call, Sell 2 SOFI 4/02 $16.50 Calls
Credit: $0.10-$0.20
Max loss: $0.90
Max gain: $0.20
BE: $15.70 / $17.30
Trigger: Enter if spot shows strength and tests $15.50 resistance.
Targets the bullish flow and call OI at $16+. Positive gamma near $16.50 can help if the stock drifts higher slowly. Defined risk, capitalizes on high call volume.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $16.50 at expiration. Benefits from IV crush and positive gamma near short strikes.
Underperforms: Stock closes below $15.50 or above $17.30 on 4/02.
Long Straddle (Directional Breakout)
Buy SOFI 4/02 $15.50 Straddle
Max loss: $1.38
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $14.12 / $16.88
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked above 65%.
100% historical beat rate and bullish flow suggest potential for larger-than-expected move. Negative gamma regime could amplify any directional breakout.
Outperforms: Stock moves beyond EM by >30% (outside $14.12-$16.88).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $15.50, IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Elevated. 4.4% EM is moderate but negative GEX (-$9.6M) with spot near gamma flip means dealers will amplify directional moves. A break below $15 could still trigger accelerated selling.
!IV Crush: Significant. IV could drop 15-20 points post-earnings. This is the primary profit driver for short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Good in near-term expirations, with high volume in weekly options and active strikes.
!Sizing: Keep position sizes small (1-2% of capital) due to binary earnings risk.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $15.00 gamma flip level - holding above is bullish.
?IV trajectory into earnings – current 61.1% offers good premium for sellers.
?Flow in OTM $2.00 and $12.00 calls for signs of extreme bullish speculation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.