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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.69EOD only
Max Pain
$15.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.59
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 25, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

SOFI enters earnings with elevated volatility (IV 72%) and a large expected move of ±17.1%. The gamma pinning regime suggests mean reversion around $17 pre-earnings, but this dynamic may break post-event. Best strategy is selling premium via defined-risk iron condors to capture IV crush, with risk defined around the expected move boundaries. Key risk is a gap beyond the elevated expected move rails given the stock's history of volatile earnings reactions.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Most important: Monitor confirmation of earnings date (estimated April 29) and any guidance updates, as the high IV environment offers premium selling opportunities but requires strict risk management.
⚠️High IV (72%) offers attractive premium selling opportunities
📊Gamma pinning at $17 may break post-earnings — expect increased volatility
🛡️Large put OI at $16 and $15 establishes strong support zone

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 72%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$70.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-0.6M, P/C 0.76)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $17 (spot $17.12)
Gamma flip: ~$16.00 — Based on put OI concentration at $16

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: April 29, 2026 (estimated) (35 days)term_structure_kink

Expected moves:

  • May 1 (37d): ±$2.92 (17.1%) [$14.20 - $20.05]

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep elevation at May 1 expiration (66.7% vs 61.8% for April 24), indicating earnings anticipated between April 24 and May 1. IV remains elevated through May (66-67%).

Crush estimate: 25-30% (IV expected to drop from ~67% to ~50% post-earnings)

Skew: Put skew elevated at $15 strike with large OI (71,360) and significant put premium flow ($1.05M net put premium at $15).

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1Gamma flip: ~$16 (support)
2EM rails (May 1): $14.20 - $20.05
3Max pain: $17 (spot $17.12)
4OI clusters: $19 CALL (91,616), $22 CALL (89,052), $16 PUT (71,360), $15 PUT (68,512)

Flow Highlights

12,583 volume in April 24 $15 PUTs (OI 7,868), 1.6x volume/OI

Bearish flow for near-term, possibly hedging or directional bet for drop to $15.

Large put premium at $15 strike: $1.05M net put premium

Institutional put buying at $15, establishing strong support level.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Defined Risk IV Crush)
Sell May 1 $18/$20 call spread and $16/$14 put spread
Max loss: $1.40
Max gain: $0.70
BE: $14.70
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings
Captures IV crush while defining risk. Strikes set inside expected move rails with room for gamma pinning at $17.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $14.70 and $19.30 post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond $14 or above $20
Short Strangle (Premium Sale)
Sell May 1 $20 CALL and $15 PUT
Max gain: $1.35
BE: $13.65
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings
High IV provides generous premium. Strikes set outside expected move (±$2.92) offering ~1.5x cushion.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $13.65 and $21.35
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens
Directional Put Spread (Bearish Bias)
Buy May 1 $17 PUT, sell $15 PUT
Max loss: $0.90
Max gain: $1.10
BE: $16.10
Trigger: On breakdown below $16.50 (gamma flip)
Leverages large put OI at $16/$15 as support-turned-resistance. Targets breakdown through gamma flip level.
Outperforms: Stock drops below $16.10 post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $17

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk high: expected move ±17.1% implies potential gap beyond strikes
!IV crush magnitude estimated 25-30% — selling premium benefits significantly
!Liquidity: High OI at key strikes ensures decent liquidity
!Sizing: High volatility necessitates smaller position sizing
!Gamma pinning pre-earnings may break post-event, increasing gap risk

What to Watch

?Earnings date confirmation (likely April 29)
?Guidance on profitability and loan growth
?Any updates on charter application
?Reaction to financial services segment results
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.