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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.56EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.02
6.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.44
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Wait for better conditions
Invalidation: Break below $30 or above $32
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 90.9% vs VIX 18.4 – extremely elevated, skew steep near 0DTE
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-end spike at 0DTE (call IV 202%, put 294%); back months ~70-80%, contango moderate

⚠️Zero DTE put IV 294% signals extreme fear – avoid naked short options
📌Max pain $31 with dealer GEX +$56M – pinning likely into expiry

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+56.3M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $35-$40, put floor $20; no put OI within 30% below spot

Verdict: Pinning is likely, but risk of gap beyond max pain elevated given high vol

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $30.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 call
Sell front-month, buy back-month call; benefits from term structure decay.
Debit: $2.09-$2.56
Max loss: $2.56
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if stock breaches $31; monitor IV skew.

Risk Alerts

!Extreme IV skew near expiry – avoid 0DTE short premium
!Dealer GEX positive but net premium negative – mixed signal
!SPY/QQQ down >1% – weak market context increases tail risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.