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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $43.26EOD only
Max Pain
$38.00
Next expiry Oct 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.40
7.9% from close
Price Gap
-5.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 25, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot below $30 support
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 88% vs VIX 18, extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Short-dated put IV >180%, steep skew; backwardated near term

📈IV at 88% vs VIX 18 provides rich premium
⚠️Extreme put skew at front; puts overpriced

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+54.4M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $35-$40; put floor $20-$20; max pain $31 (2d), $30 (1w)

Verdict: Pinning risk moderate; spot above MP, proximity to $31 expiry

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $30.00/$27.00 put spread
Sell 30p, buy 27.5p for credit.
Credit: $0.90-$1.11
Max loss: $1.89
BE: $28.89
Mgmt: Monitor spot >$31; exit if spot approaches $30.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $30.00 put + sell $37.00 call
Sell 30p and 37c for credit.
Credit: $3.12-$3.81
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 26.19 / 40.81
Mgmt: Adjust if spot breaches $30 or $37.
#3
Covered call
Buy shares + sell 2026-06-18 $37.00 call
Buy shares, sell 37c for premium.
Credit: $1.31-$1.61
Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium
BE: $30.39
Mgmt: Roll call if shares rally above $37.

Risk Alerts

!High put skew increases tail risk for short puts
!Gamma flip not triggered; monitor spot vs $30 support
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.