base 4.5; +1 pinning (GEX +98.0M); +0.5 high IV (Avg IV 83.0%); -0.5 spot 13.3% from MP noted in base
Term structure: Front-week IV elevated (3d ATM 67.7%), 1-6 week strikes remain rich (10d 72.4%, 17d 74.5%, 31d 80.7%) — steep-ish but broadly high
Spot vs MP: Spot $27.20 is above near-term max pain ($24 on 4/17, $23 on 4/24 & 5/01) — 13.3% distance noted in base
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$98.0M; concentrated positive GEX at $27.50 +$19.7M, $26.00 +$17.5M, $27.00 +$13.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Gamma flip near $20 — below $20 dealers flip to short-gamma/accelerant; current spot well above flip so dealer pinning pressure dominates near-term
OI concentrations: Call OI walls $32.00 (51,742), $26.00 (38,543), $27.50 (30,796); Put floor concentrated at $20.00 (30,392) — short-term magnets at $27.50 / $26.00
#1put spread (defined-risk weekly)
Sell 26 / Buy 25 put spread 2026-04-17 (3 DTE)
Short-week defined-risk put spread captures very rich front-week IV (ATM 67.7%) and sits just below strong GEX magnets at $27.00/$27.50 and near the $26.00 GEX wall. Short-dated defined-risk keeps assignment risk limited while collecting outsized theta.
Mgmt: Take 65% of max profit if achieved; roll down and out (e.g., to 25/24 or next weekly) if underlying closes within $0.20 of short strike on daily close; cut loss if price closes below $25.00 or spread reaches 50% of max loss.
#2call credit spread (defined-risk weekly)
Sell 27.50 / Buy 29.50 call spread 2026-04-17 (3 DTE)
Leverages large call OI concentration at 27.50 (30,796 OI) and near-term resistance inside the expected move. Positive GEX pinning lowers upside tail risk into the week; defined-risk spread limits assignment and capitalizes on elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if SMCI trades above 27.90 intraday consider buying back and rolling up+out (e.g., to 29/31 weekly) or close outright; cut loss if short strike is tested and spread >60% of max loss.
#3cash-secured put (30-45 DTE)
Sell 25.00 put 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
May 15 ATM IV high (~80.7%) and 31d expected move keeps downside well-defined. 25.00 sits above longer-term put floor and inside the 31d expected move [$22.05 - $32.36], offering attractive net yield to own equity if assigned. Use as conservative cash-secured income or as entry to buy stock at a discount.
Mgmt: Close/roll if price is within 1% of strike with >50% of DTE remaining; close for 50% profit if premium decays accordingly; cut loss or roll down if SMCI closes below $24.00 or on any event-driven gap below $23.63 (17d lower EM).
#4iron condor (30-45 DTE)
Sell 25.00/24.00 put x Sell 29.00/30.00 call 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
Two-sided defined-risk that uses strong short-side pin magnets (26.00/27.50) and resistance just under 30.00 to collect both wings premium. ATM IV elevated across curve makes wings rich; construct widths to keep max loss acceptable (example structure assumes $1 wide puts / $1 wide calls or adjust to $2 widths).
Mgmt: Take 50% of max profit; tighten/roll wings if either short strike is tested (within 0.25) with >7 DTE; close entire iron if underlying breaks through guardrails ($24.48 1w lower EM) or VIX spikes >+5 points intraday.
#5short covered call (if assigned or long stock)
Sell 30.00 call 2026-05-15 (31 DTE) against long stock
Call OI and structural call wall near $30-$32 makes the 30.00 strike a reasonable target for covered-call sellers seeking extra yield; elevated IV (~80%) makes premiums attractive for 1-month holds.
Mgmt: Take 40-60% profit on premium; if SMCI approaches $29.50 consider rolling up and out; avoid if earnings or other event within the position DTE window.
!Earnings 2026-05-05 (within ~3 weeks) — avoid selling naked through this event; close or roll exposures before the print.
!Gamma flip ~ $20 — large negative gamma below $20 could accelerate downside if SMCI gaps down; protect defined-risk wings if price trends toward $23-$22.
!High positive GEX (+$98.0M) is pinning now but can amplify moves if dealers unwind — monitor intraday flow for sudden reversals.
!Unusual activity: concentrated premium at $26.50 put (4/17 vol spike) and $28.50 call (4/17 & 4/24) — these show institutional interest; strikes at 26.50/27.00/27.50 are actively traded.
!IV term is very high (Avg IV 83.0%) — selling is favorable but watch for IV spikes that widen wing risk and make rolling more expensive.