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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $37.61EOD only

Max Pain

$30.00

Next expiry Aug 14, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.11

3.0% from close

Price Gap

-7.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Aug 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Aug 12, 2026 close

SMCI Theta Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 14, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 86% vs VIX 17 — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: 1d put IV 222% skew signals binary event. Steep contango to back.

⚠️1d put skew 222% — heavy downside protection, event risk high.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+68.4M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $35-$40; put floor $20-$20

Verdict: Max pain $31 (1d), $30 (weekly). Spot above MP, bullish flow may pin near $31.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $29.00/$28.00 put spread

Sell $29/$28 put spread to capture elevated IV of 86% vs VIX 17.

Credit: $0.28-$0.34

Max loss: $0.66

BE: $28.66

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below $31 invalidation.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-18 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $39.00/$42.00 call wing

Sell $30/$28 put wing and $39/$42 call wing to profit from low realized volatility.

Credit: $1.01-$1.23

Max loss: $1.77

BE: 28.77 / 40.23

Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot approaches extremes; close at 50% profit.

Risk Alerts

!1d expiration with extreme IV — avoid naked premium selling.

!Spot above max pain — watch for mean reversion to $31.

!Low put/vol ratio (0.18) signals complacency; VIX spike risk.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.