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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $40.35EOD only
Max Pain
$35.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.34
3.3% from close
Price Gap
-5.35
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
36
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Selling puts at gamma flip level $30
Invalidation: Break below $27.80 or above $33.51
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 101.5% vs VIX 16.4: IV significantly elevated, favoring premium selling.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure upward sloping from 74% (8dte) to 89% (1yr), with extreme skew in 0dte due to expiration.

📌Dealer GEX positive +$105M and put floor at $20 reinforce pinning at $30.
📈Call OI wall $33-$40 caps upside; flow bullish but resistance heavy.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+105.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,813 (2.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor at $20 (19,813 OI) and call wall $33-$40. Max pain $30 across expirations.

Verdict: Pinning likely at $30; risk of pin for short options at expiry.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00 cash-secured put
Selling a near-term put to capture elevated IV premium with cash-secured margin.
Credit: $2.13-$2.61
Max loss: $27.39
BE: $27.39
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or before earnings; roll if tested.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$27.00 put spread
Post-earnings put spread to collect premium with limited downside.
Credit: $1.30-$1.58
Max loss: $1.42
BE: $28.42
Mgmt: Let expire if OTM; defend short strike near $30.

Risk Alerts

!0dte options have extreme skew; avoid naked positions.
!Weeklies have 74% IV; monitor gamma risk.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.