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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $31.39EOD only
Max Pain
$33.00
Next expiry Nov 6, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.54
14.5% from close
Price Gap
+1.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Nov 3, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Nov 3, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Credit put spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $30 or above $35 with IV expansion
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV avg 98% vs VIX 16.2, elevated premium
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-end elevated (3d ATM IV 87.4) with steep put skew; term structure dips then rises, not clean contango

⚠️High IV but high vol regime and pinning gamma raise risk for naked premium sellers

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+50.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,526 (2.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $32-$36; call wall $34-$40; put floor $20; gamma flip $30

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: near expiration (3d) with large OI concentrations, but dealer long gamma provides cushion

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$26.00 put spread
Sell $30/$26 put spread to capture elevated premium from high IV and expected vol contraction post-earnings.
Credit: $1.62-$1.97
Max loss: $2.03
BE: $28.03
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $30; manage near expiration for pin risk.

Risk Alerts

!High IV vs VIX attracts sellers but high vol regime and pinning risk near expiry warrant caution
!Term structure not in clear contango; avoid short Vega positions
!Spot below max pain with bullish flow; watch for pin at $32
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.