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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $31.13EOD only
Max Pain
$28.50
Next expiry Aug 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.38
14.1% from close
Price Gap
-2.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Aug 7, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 7, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short puts or put credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot closes below $30 support or above $34 resistance
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 97% vs VIX at 19% – ~5x elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end elevated (90% for 2d), slight backwardation to 8d, then contango

📈High IV ranks attractive for premium selling; but pin risk near expiry
📍Gamma flip at $30; put OI concentration 7.6% below spot

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+67.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,513 (7.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $30 (2d), $32 (1w), $33 (2w). Heavy put OI at $30 (~20.5k)

Verdict: Spot above $30; gamma flip at $30 with 2d to expiry elevates pin risk if stock drifts lower

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $30.00/$27.50 put spread
Sell $30/$27.50 put spread to collect elevated IV premium with defined risk.
Credit: $0.90-$1.09
Max loss: $1.41
BE: $28.91
Mgmt: Exit early if IV compresses; manage near $30.50 invalidation.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $30.00/$27.50 put wing and $34.00/$36.00 call wing
Sell put wing at $30/$27.50 and call wing at $34/$36 for high IV premium.
Credit: $1.50-$1.83
Max loss: $0.67
BE: 28.17 / 35.83
Mgmt: Close if price breaks range; profit target 50% max gain.

Risk Alerts

!High IV may compress rapidly post-expiration
!Dealer gamma could amplify moves near $30 gamma flip level
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.