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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $28.56EOD only
Max Pain
$24.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.00
7.0% from close
Price Gap
-4.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
90
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Defined‑risk short put credit spread (front‑week) or small iron condor—avoid naked short puts
Invalidation: Thesis invalid if spot moves >10% toward $24–$25 pin zone, IV collapses >30% vs current, GEX flips sign, or earnings/news gap. Hedge/roll triggers: reduce size or buy protection if spot within 3% of max‑pain; roll or widen spreads if spot moves 5–8% toward pin; close or buy OTM puts if gap >8% or IV falls >30%.
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
ATM IV (69–86%, avg ~82%) is materially richer than VIX (~18.9%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Very elevated short‑dated put IV (front‑week ~146%) with steep front skew; mid‑dates remain rich

⚠️Short‑dated put IV extreme vs VIX—good premium but concentrated tail risk; use defined risk or hedges
📌OI concentrated at $24–$25 with positive dealer GEX—pin risk present; size and hedges accordingly

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+74.7M)

OI concentrations: Max‑pain concentrated at $24/$25 (next 3 expiries); call OI wall $30–$40

Verdict: Elevated pin risk around $24–$25; mitigate with defined‑risk structures, buy OTM put protection, or cut size as spot approaches within 3%.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $24.00/$23.00 put spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $24/$23 put spread to collect premium (~$0.17–$0.21) with capped loss; expresses edge from elevated ATM IV vs VIX and short time decay.
Credit: $0.17-$0.21
Max loss: $0.79
BE: $23.79
Mgmt: Cut size as spot enters 3% of $24–$25; buy protection or close if gap >8% or IV collapses >30%; roll/widen if spot moves 5–8% toward pin.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $24.00/$23.00 put wing and $30.00/$31.00 call wing
Sell 2026-05-15 24/23 put wing and 30/31 call wing to harvest richer IV both sides; higher initial credit (~$0.49–$0.59) but larger gamma exposure.
Credit: $0.49-$0.59
Max loss: $0.41
BE: 23.41 / 30.59
Mgmt: Reduce size approaching pin; prefer buying OTM put protection or trimming if spot moves toward put wing; close on >8% gap or IV collapse >30%.

Risk Alerts

!Front‑week put IV/skew => outsized tail loss if directional move; prefer defined risk or hedges
!If spot within 3% of $24–$25 max‑pain, reduce size and consider buy hedge; roll if spot moves 5–8% toward pin
!Close or buy protection on gaps >8% or IV collapse >30%; earnings/news can invalidate premium selling assumptions
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.