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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $27.29EOD only

Max Pain

$24.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.29

4.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.29

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 15, 2026 close

SMCI Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

ATM IV term: 2d 64.4% → 16d 72.8% → 30d ~84.4%; Avg IV 82.9% vs VIX 18.17 — vol is extremely rich relative to index vol.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week IV is elevated (64.4% 2d) and the curve stays rich out to 30-60d (80%+), giving sellers plenty of premium across standard 30–60 DTE windows.

💰Avg IV 82.9% vs VIX 18.17 — large absolute IV to harvest theta

⚠️High IV + pinning gamma means good premium but elevated tail/gap risk into earnings (2026-05-05)

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+105.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,395 (26.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI clusters at $26.00 (35,275), $27.50 (30,455), $27.00 (21,087) and a large put floor at $20.00 (30,395) with GEX concentrations +$24.6M at $27.50, +$15.7M at $26.00, +$14.0M at $27.00.

Verdict: Favorable — deterministic pinning (Total GEX +$105.1M and near-term GEX magnets ~+24.6M at $27.50 and +15.7M at $26.00) supports selling premium inside the pin range, but watch earnings and the sizable put floor at $20 which defines a hard downside boundary.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$20.00 put spread

Uses supportive pinning regime and elevated IV to collect premium.

Credit: $0.99-$1.22

Max loss: $3.78

BE: $23.78

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% profit; exit if price closes below $24

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-01 $26.00/$23.00 put wing and $30.00/$33.00 call wing

Sell short wings inside 16–30 DTE and buy protection wings outside expected move.

Credit: $1.17-$1.42

Max loss: $1.58

BE: 24.58 / 31.42

Mgmt: Close or hedge the breached side if price closes outside the inner wings $24–$31; manage earlier if price repeatedly tests inner wings Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (51%).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 2026-05-05 (20d) — avoid selling naked premium through earnings; prefer defined-risk structures or close/hedge before announcement.

!Gamma flip ~$20 and put floor at $20 — a break toward $20 would accelerate downside; exit or hedge credit positions if price moves decisively below $23.89 support.

!Pinning GEX concentrated at $26.00 and $27.50 — while beneficial for pinning, rapid flow changes or stop runs around those strikes can cause sharp intraday whipsaws.

!Unusual large premium flow at $70 and odd OTM/ITM activity (see $70 call/puts) — indicates directional institutional bets elsewhere in the chain; stay size-light and prefer defined risk.

!High absolute IV (Avg IV 82.9%) means large expected moves; size positions smaller and avoid wide naked short tails.

Read the Theta analysis for SMCI for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.