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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $50.17EOD only
Max Pain
$39.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.84
7.7% from close
Price Gap
-11.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short-dated put-credit spreads / iron-condors (premium-selling, defined-risk)
Invalidation: Sustained trade below $24 or broad IV collapse below ~40% (removes premium buffer)
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Spot ATM IV ~85% vs VIX ~30%; front-week ATM IV markedly higher (~188%) creating steep front-end premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-dated IV spike (0–7d rich, ~188% ATM) then drops toward multi-week avg (~85%); longer-dated elevated but flatter

⚠️Very steep near-term IV vs multi-week average increases execution and gamma risk
📌Aggregate IV materially above VIX, so premium is rich for defined-risk selling if managed tightly

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+126.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,392 (30.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Spot ~$29.50; largest put OI clusters at $25 and $24 (≈35% of put OI), call OI concentration near $30

Verdict: Pinning risk elevated around $25–$24 for near expiries given OI/GEX concentration; watch roll/assignment windows

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$23.00 put spread
Sell spread to capture steep front-end IV post-earnings while limiting downside.
Credit: $0.39-$0.48
Max loss: $1.52
BE: $24.52
Mgmt: Take profits as premium compresses; roll wider/down if underlying moves toward $25 or close before earnings-induced gap.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$22.00 put wing and $30.00/$33.00 call wing
Sell both wings to monetize extreme IV skew while keeping defined loss both sides.
Credit: $1.36-$1.66
Max loss: $1.34
BE: 23.34 / 31.66
Mgmt: Trim losers, adjust broken wing early, tighten if IV collapses or stock nears short strikes.
#3
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00 cash-secured put
Sell to acquire shares at net lower cost or collect yield; retains large assignment risk near $24–$25.
Credit: $1.01-$1.24
Max loss: $23.76
BE: $23.76
Mgmt: Use smaller size, monitor assignment windows, close or roll if stock gaps below $25 or IV collapses.

Risk Alerts

!Assignment/margin risk on short puts if underlying gaps into $24–$25
!Rapid IV crush in 1–3d can erase short-dated premium quickly
!Front-week skew distortion can produce sharp delta/gamma swings and execution slippage
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.