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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $220.61EOD only
Max Pain
$212.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.50
6.1% from close
Price Gap
-8.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA earnings 5 days out; high vol, bullish flow, gamma pinning. Historical 100% beat rate.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Flow heavily bullish with $939M net premium and put-call ratio 0.47; gamma flip at $190 suggests downside protection.
🚀$227.5 Call volume 24x OI suggests high upside conviction.
🛡️Put floor $140-$190 with gamma flip at $190 provides downside buffer.
⚠️Spot 12.7% above max pain $200; pinning risk remains.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 86,750 (15.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (5 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-18 (3d): ±$5.76 (2.6%)
  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$16.98 (7.5%)
  • 2026-05-26 (11d): ±$17.80 (7.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated; 3d exp ±2.6%, 7d ±7.5%.

Crush estimate: Estimated crush ~50-60% post-event.

Skew: Heavy put OI below $190; call demand at $227.5-$232.5.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate; avg move inline with implied.

Directional bias: No clear bias historically; current flow bullish.

Key Levels

1$190.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $219.57/$231.08; 1w $208.35/$242.30
3Max pain pins: $200 (2026-05-15); $220 (2026-05-18); $205 (2026-05-22)

Flow Highlights

Massive call volume at $227.5 and $232.5, 24x and 18.6x OI.

Aggressive bullish positioning above max pain.

Put volume at $225 and $227.5 with low IV (6.4%).

Hedging or pinning near current levels.

Strategies

Long Straddle
Buy 2026-05-22 $227.50 put + buy $227.50 call
Debit: $15.62-$19.09
Max loss: $19.09
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 208.41 / 246.59
Trigger: Exit after earnings; stop at 50% loss.
Top rank: 100% beat rate and bullish flow favor large move.
Outperforms: Buys ATM put and call; profits from volatility expansion.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-05-22 $217.50 put + buy $237.50 call
Debit: $8.17-$9.98
Max loss: $9.98
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 207.52 / 247.48
Trigger: Same as straddle; adjust if needed.
Cheaper alternative to straddle; captures large move with less cost.
Outperforms: OTM put and call; benefits from directional swing.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-22 $217.50 put + sell $235.00 call
Credit: $8.78-$10.73
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $10.73
BE: 206.77 / 245.73
Trigger: Close if spot nears strikes; watch gamma flip.
Collects premium from high IV; but tail risk from gamma flip at $190.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call; profits if stock stays in range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 12.7% above max pain $200 may pin lower.
!High VIX 18.4 suggests post-earnings volatility crush.
!Deep OTM puts ($60, $130) signal tail risk hedging.

What to Watch

?IV crush magnitude post-earnings.
?Gamma flip at $190 if spot breaks.
?Call wall at $227.5-$232.5.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.