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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $222.82EOD only
Max Pain
$217.50
Next expiry Jun 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.97
1.8% from close
Price Gap
-5.32
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Bullish-skewed setup with strong pinning to ~$200–205 ahead of earnings; heavy short-dated call interest suggests upside pinning risk.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: Concentrated short-dated call OI and dealer hedging patterns align with historical upside beats
Most important: Concentrated short-dated call OI at $202–205 (~18k combined OI) creating dealer sell/hedge dynamics that drive pinning.
📌Pinning concentrated ~$200–205 driven by ~18k short-dated call OI — watch dealer hedges
⚠️Elevated front-week IV (~22–28%) implies meaningful post-event crush risk if beats are priced in

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (3d): ±$1.23 (0.6%)
  • 2026-04-22 (5d): ±$5.33 (2.6%)
  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$6.74 (3.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV (4/20–4/24) elevated ~22–28% at 202–205 strikes; 30-day IV ~35%; 3-month IV ~40%.

Crush estimate: Front-week expected IV crush ~8–12 pts (down to mid-teens) for expiring options; 30-day crush ~6–10 pts.

Skew: Call skew heavy at 202–205 with ~18k call OI; puts concentrated at $200 (~6k OI) producing asymmetric downside protection demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical absolute moves have matched or exceeded short-term expected moves; recent stretch shows outsized upside on beats.

Directional bias: Upside bias/pinning driven by recurring beats and concentrated short-dated call flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $200.45/$202.90; 1w $196.35/$207.01
2Max pain pins: $185 (2026-04-17); $192 (2026-04-20); $190 (2026-04-22)

Flow Highlights

Large short-dated call volume at 4/20–4/24 202–205 strikes (~18k call OI).

Dealer selling/hedging likely creates pinning pressure near $200–205.

Notable 4/17 $200 put print (~6k OI) with high volume.

Put hedges concentrate gamma near $200, narrowing move range pre-earnings.

Strategies

Front‑week iron condor
Sell 2026-04-24 $197.50/$190.00 put wing and $202.50/$210.00 call wing
Credit: $3.15-$3.84
Max loss: $3.66
Max gain: $3.84
BE: 193.66 / 206.34
Trigger: Enter near upper end of entry range; trim or buy wings if spot breaks wings or IV spikes.
Defines risk while harvesting rich front‑week call premium and exploiting pinning to ~202–205.
Outperforms: Sell defined put/call wings into concentrated short‑dated call OI to collect premium and limit gap exposure.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (sell near‑term, buy longer)
Sell 2026-04-24 $202.50 call / buy 2026-05-22 $215.00 call
Debit: $1.53-$1.88
Max loss: $1.88
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Sell into elevated IV, roll/close short leg on large adverse move or post‑print repricing.
Keeps upside participation post‑earnings while selling elevated front‑week IV.
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 calls to capture rich near IV; hold longer call to retain directional upside if beat.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (higher yield, unlimited risk)
Sell 2026-04-24 $197.50 put + sell $205.00 call
Credit: $3.32-$4.06
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.06
BE: 193.44 / 209.06
Trigger: Keep small size, hedge quickly on move beyond strikes or widen to defined risk.
Highest income but unlimited loss if large gap; relies on pinning staying intact.
Outperforms: Sell near‑term put and call spreads to collect max premium from elevated strikes.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot ~9% above pin range — gap-down risk if guidance disappoints
!Front-week IV can reprice sharply if revenue/guide miss — possible 8–12pt front-week IV spike down/up
!Pinning reverses quickly on heavy adverse flow or brute-force delta hedging

What to Watch

?Front-week IV and bid/ask changes at 202–205 strikes (4/20–4/24)
?Follow-through on large prints and dealer delta hedging activity
?Earnings guidance and macro risk that would flip dealer hedges
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.