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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $225.83EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.01
3.1% from close
Price Gap
-30.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA earnings 6 days out, high conf. bullish flow & pinning gamma. Heavy put buying 230-235 hedges downside, but 100% beat rate & $2.46B net premium favor upside.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Gamma flip at $190; massive put volume $232.5 (268x OI) indicates aggressive downside bets. Spot ~$235, max pain post-earnings $205.
🐻Put volume at $232.5 (268x OI) signals aggressive downside hedging.
📈Net premium $2.46B call-heavy; 100% beat rate bullish tilt.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,353 (19.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (6 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$4.89 (2.1%)
  • 2026-05-18 (4d): ±$7.10 (3.0%)
  • 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$18.80 (8.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (1d ~33% IV), term in contango with 8d ~62% IV (post-earnings expansion).

Crush estimate: IV crush ~50-60% post-event from ~60% to ~30%.

Skew: Put skew steep; heavy put OI at 230-235 signaling downside hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A (4/4 beats, no avg move data).

Directional bias: Bullish bias given 100% beat rate & bullish regime.

Key Levels

1$190.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $230.85/$240.64; 1w $216.94/$254.54
3Max pain pins: $195 (2026-05-15); $215 (2026-05-18); $205 (2026-05-22)

Flow Highlights

Massive put volume $232.5 (108.7k vs 405 OI) and $230 (130.8k vs 2k OI).

Aggressive downside protection or bearish bets ahead of earnings.

Net premium $2.46B, put/call volume 0.43, call-heavy flow.

Overall bullish sentiment dominates despite put activity.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $225.00/$220.00 put wing and $250.00/$260.00 call wing
Credit: $3.10-$3.78
Max loss: $6.22
Max gain: $3.78
BE: 221.22 / 253.78
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before expiration; adjust if spot nears wings.
Defined risk, captures IV crush with range-bound expectation near $235, avoiding heavy put concentration at $232.5.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from IV collapse and limited spot move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-22 $222.50 put + sell $255.00 call
Credit: $6.55-$8.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.00
BE: 214.50 / 263.00
Trigger: Set stop loss at 2x credit; close early on IV collapse.
Higher credit than iron condor, but unlimited risk; still viable given high IV and pinning.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to profit from IV crush and range-bound action.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $245.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $245.00 call
Debit: $0.99-$1.21
Max loss: $1.21
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close before earnings if IV gap narrows; let short leg expire.
Exploits IV term structure; front-end IV higher than back-month, benefits from crush.
Outperforms: Sells short-term call, buys longer-term call to profit from IV decline and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk at $190; if spot breaches, pinning breaks down.
!IV crush post-earnings could erode long premium positions.
!Despite 100% beat rate, a miss would amplify bearish put bets.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $230-$235 zone; put OI concentration at 232.5.
?Any further large put sweeps or call buying ahead of event.
?Post-earnings IV collapse magnitude.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.