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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $214.86EOD only
Max Pain
$220.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.35
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+5.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA is in a pinning regime with strong positive dealer gamma (Total GEX +$696.4M) and concentrated call flow at the $190/$200 strikes. Best strategy is a premium-selling structure sized for earnings-range outcomes (e.g., short iron / sell premium into the EM rails). Key risk is a gap >EM driven by company commentary or guidance that overwhelms dealer pinning and causes directional re-pricing.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.8% above max pain
Most important: IV trajectory into the event and whether call buying around $190/$200 continues (those strikes hold the pin).
📌Pin range highlighted: near-term EM and GEX concentration favor pin between $185-$191 (EM 2d $185.53-$191.73).
🔥Large net call premium at $190 ($91.9M call vs $34.6M put) — key flow to monitor for direction into the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Below $140, dealers flip to negative gamma amplification; concentrated put OI (83,126 at $140) drives flip.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (TBD) (40 days)unknown

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-13 (3d): : :$185.53 - $191.73 (±$3.10, 1.6%)
  • 2026-04-15 (5d): $183.80 - $193.47 (±$4.83, 2.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IV is low (3d ATM 21.5%, 5d ATM 27.1%) with front-end dip relative to 2-week (14d ATM 32.0%) — no large front-loaded earnings pop but a modest term kink out to 2 weeks.

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts if event is priced into 2-week options (14d ATM 32.0%) down to front-day 21.5% — practical crush into non-event expiries ~8-10 vol pts.

Skew: Calls are dominant in premium flow (heavy net call premium at $190/$200/$185) and slight put-richness far below (put floor at $140).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A — available historical EPS surprises but not per-event realized move table in the dataset

Directional bias: Skewed to upside in recent quarters (beats each release), small positive bias

Key Levels

1$140 gamma flip
2$175 max pain (2026-04-10)
3EM 2d: $185.53 - $191.73

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $190 (Net $57,274,466) and $200 (Net $55,781,811) in top premium flow.

Large buyer interest concentrated at $190-$200 supports a pin near $190 and increases dealer hedging long-delta, reinforcing pinning in the $185-$195 band.

Top OI shows concentrated CALL OI at $190 (97,668), $195 (86,909) and $200 (105,612).

These call OI walls plus positive GEX create resistance to downside and promote pin behavior between $185-$195.

Strategies

Short iron (earnings-range condor)
Sell 2026-04-13 1x 185C / Buy 1x 195C, Sell 1x 180P / Buy 1x 175P (balanced iron with 185/195 call side and 180/175 put side).
Credit: $3.00-$4.50
Max loss: $6.50
Max gain: $4.50
BE: Upside BE: ~189.5; Downside BE: ~176.5
Trigger: Enter 3-1 days before event if IV is stable and net premium remains >$3.00.
Pinning regime (GEX +$696.4M) and concentrated call flow near $190-$195 make selling balanced premium around those strikes attractive; structure limits risk if gamma breaks.
Outperforms: NVDA stays within EM 2d $185.53-$191.73 and pinning persists.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond EM rails (moves >±2.5%) or a large unexpected guidance move triggers directional gap.
Short straddle (high conviction, small size)
Sell 2026-04-13 1x 190 straddle (sell 190C and 190P) -- aggressive, keep position size small.
Credit: $2.80-$3.50
Max loss: Unlimited (large move exposure)
Max gain: $3.50
BE: Approx 187.2 / 193.8 (using credit ranges and spot)
Trigger: Very short window (enter 1 day before) when IV has not ripped higher and flows favor call pinning.
High GEX pin + concentrated open interest at $190 gives edge to a short straddle — only for traders who can size very small given gap risk.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $190 and realized move <EM.
Underperforms: Gap outside EM or IV spikes significantly; catastrophic if large directional gap.
Long call spread (directional upside)
Buy 2026-04-24 1x 190C / Sell 1x 205C (calendar where longer expiry retains IV) — use 2026-04-24 expiry to capture post-event drift.
Debit: $2.00-$4.00
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: $13.00
BE: $192.00
Trigger: Enter if unexpected large buy flow continues into $190-$200 and you accept lower theta loss over 10+ days.
Bullish flow and concentrated call OI at $190/$195/$200 indicate directional upside skew; using longer-dated spread reduces immediate IV crush exposure vs front-month outright calls.
Outperforms: Sustained upside beyond EM into $200+ post-earnings, or positive guidance lifts shares.
Underperforms: Stock pins or falls; IV crush reduces premium if move is muted.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 2d is ±$3.10 (1.6%) but concentrated flow and earnings-related news can push move beyond EM; prepare for >±3% gaps.
!IV crush: Front-day IV is low (3d ATM 21.5%); selling premium into pinning is attractive but realized IV may retrade—expected crush to mid-20s on non-event expiries (~8-10 vol pts).
!Liquidity: Near-term chain is liquid at strikes 180-195 (high volume/OI) but wide spreads on deep ITM/OTM strikes; use limit orders.
!Sizing: Because of large positive GEX (+$696.4M) the market may pin; nevertheless size shorts conservatively to limit gap exposure.
!Model risk: Max pain trend is rising (175→180) which can change if large block trades re-distribute OI ahead of earnings.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May earnings date (watch ATM IV on 2-4 week expiries vs front-week)
?Premium flow at $190/$195/$200 (continued heavy call buying would reinforce pin or cause upside re-pricing)
?Unusual put flow near $185-$188 (current unusual activity includes multiple $185 puts with elevated vols)
?Dealer GEX changes (monitor intraday shifts away from +$696.4M)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.