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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $199.88EOD only
Max Pain
$197.50
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.99
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-2.38
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish pinning into 2026-05-20 earnings (high confidence): concentrated front expiries and heavy call flow support spot near $200–202 into the print.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Flow, GEX and concentrated OI near key strikes consistently correlated with muted immediate moves in recent samples.
Most important: Large near-dated OI and GEX clustered at $200–$202 creating mechanical pinning risk ahead of the 2026-05-20 print.
📌Pinning: concentrated OI at 2026-05-22 $200–$202 likely to anchor price into the 2026-05-20 print.
⚠️Guidance risk: forward commentary can overwhelm option pinning and trigger outsized gap moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$4.18 (2.1%)
  • 2026-04-27 (5d): ±$6.18 (3.1%)
  • 2026-04-29 (7d): ±$8.15 (4.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week (2026-05-22) IV compressed vs nearby monthly expiries; IV rises into June expiries (e.g., 2026-06-19).

Crush estimate: Small front-week crush likely (IV already depressed); larger realized-move risk priced into later-month vols.

Skew: Call-heavy activity and elevated skew beyond $200 with front strikes showing compressed IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Last 8 prints: avg realized move ~3.2% vs avg implied move ~4.6% (N=8).

Directional bias: Tilt bullish — 6 of 8 prior prints saw spot close near option pain strikes; sample size modest but consistent.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $198.32/$206.68; 1w $196.32/$208.68
2Max pain pins: $200 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24); $200 (2026-04-27)

Flow Highlights

Large volume and OI accumulation at 2026-05-22 $200–$202 strikes.

Creates short-term pinning/GEX support through the post-print front expiry.

Significant buys in later-month calls (2026-06-19 strikes out to $235) and net premium inflow.

Market participants are positioning bullishly beyond the immediate earnings date.

Strategies

Call calendar (sell May, buy Jun 215)
Sell 2026-05-22 $215.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $215.00 call
Debit: $2.63-$3.22
Max loss: $3.22
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close short leg into a sharp pin break, roll short forward if IV collapses, or trim longs after a >50% unrealized gain.
Keeps front-week short exposure to benefit from expected pinning while owning Jun upside if post-earnings vol lifts; profitable if immediate move is muted but tail risk rises into June.
Outperforms: Collect premium on compressed front-week IV, retain longer-dated upside via June calls to capture vol reversion or a delayed breakout.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron condor (May29 190/185 & 220/225)
Sell 2026-05-29 $190.00/$185.00 put wing and $220.00/$225.00 call wing
Credit: $2.12-$2.59
Max loss: $2.41
Max gain: $2.59
BE: 187.41 / 222.59
Trigger: Tighten or hedge if spot trends toward a wing, scale hedges when front-week IV gaps up >20% on surprise.
Neutral, defined-risk structure that sells premium where order flow/pain is likely to pin; benefits when front IV is depressed and theta dominates.
Outperforms: Sell balanced wings around probable pin strikes to capture decay while capping tail exposure.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $190.00 put + sell $223.00 call
Credit: $10.89-$13.31
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $13.31
BE: 176.69 / 236.31
OI concentration near $200 implies pin risk; balanced strikes/deltas reduce one-sided exposure while capturing rich June IV.
Outperforms: Sell two-sided June premium to harvest elevated post-earnings vol (next_earnings_date:2026-05-01).
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Compressed front-week IV: gap risk on surprise beat/miss
!Heavy OI concentration can flip to sharp moves if delta shifts or sellers overwhelm calls
!Earnings guidance/forward commentary can drive outsized directional moves contrary to pre-print pinning

What to Watch

?Unusual prints and OI changes at $200–$202 for 2026-05-22 expiries
?IV divergence between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-19 pre- and post-release
?Company guidance/forward commentary in the 2026-05-20 release
?Post-earnings realized move vs implied ±$4–$8 absolute range
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.