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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $198.87EOD only
Max Pain
$180.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.52
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-18.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 15, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

8.0/10 — Best strategy: defined-risk premium selling or directional defined-risk spreads into the May 20 earnings cycle (capture elevated front-month IV while respecting strong dealer pinning). Key risk: a guidance or macro shock that breaks dealer pins near $200 and triggers a gap > expected move.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-cycle call concentration at $200/$195 plus positive GEX (+$1.1B) is the dominant force — expecting pinning/pull to the $195–$200 area into near-term expiries unless a surprise prints change the narrative.
📌Dealer GEX large and positive: +$1.1B concentrated at $195–$200 is the technical gravity for spot.
📈Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) increases asymmetric upside probability into May 20.
⚠️Max pain trend is down-sloping (current short-term MPs $190→$185) — if sizeable sell flow appears, downside acceleration is possible.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,750 (29.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$4.52 (2.3%)
  • 2026-04-20 (5d): ±$5.77 (2.9%)
  • 2026-04-22 (7d): ±$7.10 (3.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front expiries (2–9d) show a sharp front premium (2d ATM 30.9% → 9d 32.1%) with a material step-up into the May cyclical window (16d 33.7% → 37d 40.6%). Steep term kink into the May 22 expiry prices in the May 20 earnings event.

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-high crush for expirations straddling May 20: expect ATM IV on the 37d (2026-05-22) tenor to drop from ~40.6% toward mid-30s post-release; front-week expiries (Apr 17/24) have limited event exposure but already show elevated short-dated vol that will compress sharply if no news.

Skew: Upside-call premium dominates flow (net premium heavily concentrated in $185–$205 calls) while downside listed put OI is concentrated deep (notably large $140 put blocks), producing a bullish skew profile.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: NVDA has beaten estimates in the last 4 of 4 quarters — historically EPS surprises skew positive and price moves often track or exceed the implied move when beats occur.

Directional bias: Upside bias into earnings (historical beat rate 100% reinforces call-heavy positioning and dealer bullish deltas).

Key Levels

1$140.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $194.35/$203.38; 1w $193.10/$204.64
3Max pain pins: $190 (2026-04-15); $180 (2026-04-17); $190 (2026-04-20)

Flow Highlights

Very large call premium concentrated at $200/$195/$185 strikes (top premium: $200 net call $119,373,153; $195 net call $98,169,367).

Aggressive upside positioning — dealers are long gamma around near-$200 strikes and delta-hedging supports price as spot sits above max pain.

GEX concentration: +$222.3M at $200.00 and +$115.5M at $195.00 (pin magnets) with total GEX +$1.1B.

Significant dealer pinning pressure inside ±2% of spot, increasing likelihood of spot gravitating to the $195–$200 neighborhood absent a shock.

Net premium flows show bullish tilt (Net premium +$957.6M, P/C volume 0.45).

Order flow is one-sided bullish — favors premium-collection strategies biased to the upside or defined-risk bullish spreads.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit spread (post-earnings May window)
Sell 2026-05-15 $185.00/$170.00 put spread
Credit: $1.79-$2.19
Max loss: $12.81
Max gain: $2.19
BE: $182.81
Trigger: Close into a sharp IV drop post-earnings or if spot breaches the short-put strike with acceleration; reduce size ahead of major macro prints.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest elevated May-cycle premium while using dealer pinning to your advantage; defined max loss if NVDA gaps under support.
Outperforms: Sell a ~0.22-delta short put in the May 22 cycle and buy a lower put ~0.08-delta ~5 points below to cap downside — collects premium with positive expected theta and benefits from GEX pinning near $195–$200.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings or guidance can gap NVDA beyond the EM guardrails (2d EM [$194.35-$203.38], 1w EM [$193.10-$204.64]); sellers of premium face fast losses if price gaps through wings.
!IV crush: Strategies that long front-dated vega (long straddle/long calls) risk sharp IV decay post-release; calendar and diagonal structures mitigate but still sensitive to realized move size.
!Liquidity: Highly liquid near-the-money strikes ($190–$205) but wider spreads on deep OTM or long-dated strikes; use spreads to reduce leg slippage.
!Sizing: Positive GEX and concentrated call OI can amplify pinning — but position sizes should assume sudden directional moves and set stop/hedge triggers accordingly.

What to Watch

?Price action versus pin cluster: watch behavior around $195.00 and $200.00 (GEX magnets).
?IV slope: changes between the 16–37d tenors (33.7% → 40.6%) — steeper slope into May suggests greater event premium and influences calendar/diagonal viability.
?Unusual activity in front-week expiries (notable heavy volumes at 4/15–4/17 strikes) that may signal short-term gamma exposure ahead of the May earnings cadence.
?Net premium flow and P/C volume (current net premium +$957.6M; P/C vol 0.45) — continued bullish flow will support pinning.

Read the Earnings analysis for NVDA for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.