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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $220.78EOD only
Max Pain
$212.50
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.07
1.8% from close
Price Gap
-8.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA earnings setup bullish with strong call flow and 100% beat rate.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.0% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy put hedging at 225 may cap near-term upside.
📊100% beat rate over 4 quarters.
⚠️Heavy put hedging at 225 could limit upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,570 (15.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$7.01 (3.1%)
  • 2026-05-18 (5d): ±$8.88 (3.9%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$18.22 (8.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-dated elevated (earnings); contango post-event.

Crush estimate: Estimated 60-70% IV collapse after earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated at 225-227.5 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move near implied; strong upward bias.

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate, recent beats).

Key Levels

1$190.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $218.82/$232.84; 1w $216.96/$234.71
3Max pain pins: $215 (2026-05-13); $195 (2026-05-15); $205 (2026-05-18)

Flow Highlights

Massive put volume on 225 strike (294k vol vs 651 OI) and 222.5 puts (164k vol vs 3.9k OI).

Likely hedging or bearish positioning; may cap upside near 225.

Call buying on June 265 and 245 strikes (32k and 32k vol).

Bullish expectations beyond earnings, targeting upside breakout.

Strategies

Iron Condor on NVDA
Sell 2026-05-22 $215.00/$212.50 put wing and $245.00/$250.00 call wing
Credit: $1.44-$1.77
Max loss: $3.23
Max gain: $1.77
BE: 213.23 / 246.77
Trigger: Exit if stock breaks below 212.50 or above 250; take profit near max gain.
Best for range-bound move near earnings; support 215, resistance 246, and high IV crush potential.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings to profit from IV collapse and stock staying within range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar on NVDA
Sell 2026-05-22 $245.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $245.00 call
Debit: $3.15-$3.85
Max loss: $3.85
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor around earnings; adjust if stock approaches 245 early.
Exploits elevated near-term IV vs back-month; neutral-bullish but less direct crush capture.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated call, buy later-dated call to benefit from IV contraction over time.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss (despite 100% historical beat rate).
!Post-earnings IV crush.
!Sell-the-news reaction if guidance disappoints.

What to Watch

?Earnings announcement May 20.
?Guidance for next quarter.
?AI sector sentiment.
?Key levels: support 215, resistance 246.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.